CMA-CPEFS模式产品在贵州飞机增雨作业中的适用性检验
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贵州省气象灾害防御中心 贵阳 550081

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贵州暖云增雨外场试验及催化技术研究(黔科合SY字[2011]3114)资助


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Test of the applicability of CMA-CPEFS model products in Guizhou aircraft rainfall operations
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    摘要:

    针对贵州复杂地形区人工增雨作业中云模式预报产品的适用性难题,基于中国气象局人工影响天气中心研发的CMA-CPEFS(Cloud-Precipitation Explicit Forecasting System)模式的定量预报产品,采用地基雷达、静止卫星、探空廓线多源观测数据融合诊断方法,对2020—2021年贵州地区30例飞机增雨个例的模式预报性能开展检验。结果表明:(1)模式云系相态判别的准确率达93%(28/30),作业高度层与催化剂量级配置的匹配度分别为93%(28/30)和100%(30/30),证实模式对云物理参量场的表征能力达到业务实用标准。(2)零度层高度出现系统性正偏差(平均误差+288 m,95%CI:±150 m,p<0.01),云系移速预报误差显著高于移向误差(相对误差分别为23%±5%和17%±3%)。(3)增雨潜力区TS评分达0.67,但存在显著空间外延偏差(预报范围较实况扩大18%±3%),与主观分析误差和模式过高预估云水含量(偏差+0.15g/m3)显著相关(R2=0.82,p<0.001)。本研究结果为贵州所在的喀斯特地貌区人工影响天气数值模式优化提供了关键物理约束。

    Abstract:

    Aiming at the applicability of cloud mode forecasting products in artificial rainfall operations in complex terrain areas of Guizhou, based on the quantitative forecasting products of CMA-CPEFS (Cloud-Precipitation Explicit Forecasting System) mode developed by the Artificial Impact Weather Center of the China Meteorological Administration, the multi-source observation data fusion diagnosis method of ground-based radar, static satellite and pronging profile is adopted to test the mode prediction performance of 30 cases of rainfall of aircraft in Guizhou from 2020 to 2021. The results show that: (1) The accuracy of mode cloud phase discrimination is 93% (28/30), and the matching degree between the operation height layer and the catalyst magnitude configuration is 93% (28/30) and 100% (30/30) respectively, confirming that the mode's characterization ability of the cloud physical parameter field meets the business practical standard. ( 2) There is a systematic positive deviation in the height of the zero-degree layer (average error +288 m, 95% CI: ±150 m, p<0.01), and the cloud speed prediction error is significantly higher than the shift error (the relative error is 23%±5% and 17%±3% respectively). ( 3) The TS score of the rain increase potential area is 0.67, but there is a significant spatial epitaxial deviation (the forecast range is 18% ± 3% larger than that of the actual situation), which is significantly related to the subjective analysis error and excessive mode estimation of cloud water content (deviation +0.15g/m3) (R2=0.82, p<0.001). The results of this study provide key physical constraints for the optimization of artificially affecting weather numerical models in the karst geomorphological area where Guizhou is located.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-09-18
  • 最后修改日期:2025-05-08
  • 录用日期:2025-06-03
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