滨州市台风灾害风险评估与区划(台风专题)
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1.滨州市气象局;2.滨州市气象局 滨州;3.山东省滨州市气象局

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P429

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Risk assessment and zoning of typhoon disaster in Binzhou City
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Binzhou Meteorological Bureau

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    摘要:

    利用滨州市1978—2019年17个台风样本资料,建立基于ArcGIS的灾害风险评估模型,对台风灾害风险进行评估,以期为地区产业合理布局及气象防灾减灾工作提供科学依据。结果表明:(1)影响滨州市的台风一般发生在7—9月,影响时长为1—6天 ,台风影响时长年际变化呈正增长趋势, 各县(市、区)累计发生台风灾情34次,中-重灾比例达到58.82%。(2)台风致灾危险性指数呈东南大西北小分布特征。其中,风因子MW致灾危险性指数呈北大南小分布;雨因子MP和AP致灾危险性指数均呈东大西小阶梯式分布。(3)分析滨州市不同承灾体台风灾害风险区划,总体来看,东南部地区风险等级高于北部地区,高-较高等级风险相对集中,该结果与台风致灾危险性指数分布特征相符。

    Abstract:

    Using the relevant data of typhoon cases from 1978 to 2019, and the typhoon disaster risk assessment and zoning of the city were carried out, in order to provide scientific basis for the rational layout of regional industry and meteorological disaster prevention and reduction work.(1)The results show that typhoons in Binzhou generally occur in July-September, with an impact duration of 1-6 days, the impact period of typhoons how a positive growth trend;(2)The typhoon hazard index is distributed in a large southeast, small northwest and large north. Among them, the disaster risk index of MW shows a large north-south small distribution; the disaster risk index of MP and AP both show a large east-west small stepwise distribution. The counties, cities, and districts have experienced a total of 34 typhoon disasters, with moderate to severe disasters accounting for 58.82% of the total.(3)Based on the risk distribution characteristics of each disaster carrier in Binzhou City, the comprehensive risk in the southeastern region is higher than that in the north. This result is consistent with the characteristics of the distribution of the typhoon disaster risk index.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-10-18
  • 最后修改日期:2025-04-02
  • 录用日期:2025-04-11
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