冬季黄渤海海上大风年代际变化特征及可能机制分析
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作者单位:

1.烟台市气象局;2.烟台市牟平区气象局;3.山东省气象台;4.中国海洋大学海洋与大气学院

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P461.2

基金项目:

国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFF0805102)、烟台市气象局青年专项(2025YTQN01)


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Analysis of the interdecadal variation characteristics and possible mechanisms of the strong breeze over the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea in winter
Author:
Affiliation:

1.Yantai Meteorological Bureau;2.Muping Meteorological Bureau of Yantai;3.Shandong Meteorological Observatory;4.College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences,Ocean University of China

Fund Project:

National Key R & D Program of China(2023YFF0805102)、Yantai Meteorological Bureau Youth Special Project(2025YTQN01)

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    摘要:

    基于美国航空局的多平台交叉检验(Cross-Calibrated Multi-Platform,CCMP)3.1版海面风数据等资料,结合Mann-Kendall趋势检验等方法,对冬季黄渤海海上大风频次异常变化特征进行了分析,并探究了其在年代际尺度上的可能影响因子。结果表明:(1)1993至2008年,渤海、渤海海峡和黄海西北部的冬季大风频次呈显著增长趋势,2009年后趋势变化趋缓。(2)年代际尺度上去除长期趋势后, 1996到2020年,11月北大西洋海表面温度异常(sea surface temperature anomaly,SSTA)呈三极型模态。当SSTA呈“+-+”位相时,冬季北大西洋上空850 hPa出现负位相的北大西洋涛动(North Atlantic Oscillation,NAO),同时250 hPa上的Rossby波列沿负位相NAO向下游黄渤海及日本海一带传播,引起的环流形势异常利于冷空气在寒潮关键区积聚与爆发。此时,黄渤海上空850 hPa存在经向温度梯度负异常,有利于高空动量下传,产生寒潮大风。(3)保留数据长期趋势时,11月巴伦支海北部和喀拉海海冰密集度异常(sea ice concentration anomaly,SICA)在1993至2008年呈显著下降趋势,与同年冬季北极涛动显著负相关。同时冬季250 hPa上的Rossby波列从北极向黄渤海和日本海一带传播,500 hPa上乌拉尔阻塞增强,贝加尔湖出现异常低压,利于北极冷空气向寒潮关键区的输送和积累,黄渤海上空850 hPa出现经向温度梯度负异常。而2009年以来北极SICA趋势变化不显著,与之对应的冬季乌拉尔阻塞高压异常偏弱,贝加尔湖上空为异常高压,不利于冷空气输送积聚及黄渤海寒潮大风的爆发。

    Abstract:

    Based on the data such as Cross-Calibrated Multi-Platform (CCMP) version 3.1 vector wind provided by NASA, combined with the methods such as Mann-Kendall trend test, the anomalous change characteristics of the strong breeze frequency over the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea in winter are analyzed, and the possible influencing factors on the interdecadal time scale are explored. The results show that: (1) From 1993 to 2008, the strong breeze frequency over the Bohai Sea, Bohai Strait, and northwest Yellow Sea shows an overall upward trend. However, since 2009, the trend variation has decelerated. (2) After removing the long-term trend on the interdecadal scale, from 1996 to 2020, the North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in November shows a tripolar mode. When the "+-+" phase SSTA emerging, a negative phase North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) appears at 850 hPa above the sea surface in winter. Meanwhile, a Rossby wave train propagates downstream from the area of negative phase NAO to the Yellow Sea, Bohai Sea, and Sea of Japan at 250 hPa, which is conducive to the accumulation of cold air in the key area and the outbreak of cold waves. In winter, there is a negative meridional temperature gradient anomaly at 850 hPa over the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea, which is conducive to the downward transfer of high-altitude momentum and the outbreak of cold waves and strong breeze. (3) When retaining the long-term trends of the data, the sea ice concentration anomaly (SICA) in the northern Barents Sea and the Kara Sea from 1993 to 2008 in November shows a significant downward trend, which is negatively correlated with the Arctic oscillation in winter. The Rossby wave train at 250 hPa spreads from the Arctic to the Yellow Sea, Bohai Sea, and Sea of Japan, while the Ural blocking at 500 hPa intensifies, and an abnormal low pressure occurs over Lake Baikal, which is conducive to the transport and accumulation of cold air from the Arctic to the key area of the cold wave, a negative meridional temperature gradient anomaly appears at 850 hPa over the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea. Since 2009, the Arctic SICA trend in November has not changed significantly, while the corresponding Ural blocking high pressure is abnormally weak, and abnormal high pressure appears over Lake Baikal in winter. It is not conducive to the transport and accumulation of cold air in the key area, as well as the outbreak of strong breeze over the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea in winter.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-11-29
  • 最后修改日期:2025-01-06
  • 录用日期:2025-04-11
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