台风“杜苏芮”(2305)影响福建期间DSAEF_LTP模型降水预报检验
作者:
作者单位:

1.厦门市海峡气象重点开放实验室,福建 厦门 361012 ;2.厦门市气象局,福建 厦门 361012 ;3.福建省灾害天气重点实验室,福建 福州 350028 ;4.中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室,北京 100081

作者简介:

苏志重,男,硕士,正高级工程师,主要从事天气预报技术和台风降水研究,shixinqianli@163.com。

通讯作者:

中图分类号:

P732.7;P457.6

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金重点项目(42330610);福建省自然科学基金项目(2022J01446);华东区域气象科技协同创新基金合作项目(QYHZ202317)


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Verification of precipitation forecast of Typhoon Doksuri (2305) during its impact on Fujian based on the DSAEF_LTP model
Author:
Affiliation:

1.Xiamen Key Laboratory of Straits Meteorology, Xiamen 361012 , China ; 2.Xiamen Meteorological Service, Xiamen 361012 , China ; 3.Fujian Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Fuzhou 350028 , China ; 4.State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081 , China

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    摘要:

    为了评估改进的动力统计相似集合预报登陆台风降水模型(Dynamical-Statistical-Analog Ensemble Forecast model for Landfalling Typhoon Precipitation,DSAEF_LTP)在2023年第5号超强台风“杜苏芮”影响福建地区的表现,对其预报的台风过程降水量进行常规检验和空间检验,并与欧洲中期天气预报中心(European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,ECMWF)数值预报降水产品(以下简记为“ECMWF”)、福建省气象局最优TS(threat score)评分订正法(optimal TS,OTS)订正降水产品(以下简记为“FZECMOS”)结果进行对比。分析表明:(1)DSAEF_LTP模型对福建沿海强降水落区和东北部强降水中心的预报接近实况,100 mm及以上和250 mm及以上等极端降水量TS评分比ECMWF和FZECMOS提升明显,但DSAEF_LTP模型存在特大暴雨预报范围显著偏小等缺点。(2)在100 mm及以上和250 mm及以上量级,MODE(Method for Object-based Diagnostic Evaluation)空间检验显示,DSAEF_LTP模型在整体相似度上明显优于ECMWF和FZECMOS,尤其在对孤立小区域强降水的预报性能方面表现出色。(3)随着降水检验量级的增加,DSAEF_LTP模型预报产品与实况重叠面积之比也增大,表明DSAEF_LTP模型在极端降水方面的预报效果更加突出。(4)DSAEF_LTP模型还能够根据最新的相似路径实况和预报,调整筛选历史相似台风,合理保留相似台风及其降水分布,使得集合预报效果得以改善。

    Abstract:

    To assess the performance of the improved Dynamical-Statistical-Analog Ensemble Forecast model for Landfalling Typhoon Precipitation (DSAEF_LTP model) during the impact of Super Typhoon Doksuri (2305) on the Fujian region, the forecast typhoon precipitation by the DSAEF_LTP model is evaluated by using conventional and spatial verification methods. The results are compared with the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) numerical prediction products (hereafter referred to as ECMWF) and the revised precipitation products of Fujian Meteorological Service based on OTS (optimal threat score) (hereafter referred to as FZECMOS). The main findings are summarized as follows. (1) The DSAEF_LTP model forecast of intense precipitation distribution in the coastal areas of Fujian and the intense precipitation center in the northeastern part of Fujian closely align with actual observations. The TS values of the DSAEF_LTP model show significant improvement compared to ECMWF and FZECMOS at the precipitation equal to or greater than 100/250 mm. However, the DSAEF_LTP model has shortcomings such as a significantly smaller forecast area for very heavy rainstorm. (2) At the precipitation equal to or greater than 100/250 mm, the spatial verification results of MODE (Method for Object-based Diagnostic Evaluation) reveal that the DSAEF_LTP model outperforms ECMWF and FZECMOS in overall similarity, particularly in forecasting intense precipitation in isolated small areas. (3) As the magnitude of precipitation increases, the overlap area between the DSAEF_LTP model forecast products and the observations also increases, indicating the model’s effectiveness in forecasting extreme precipitation. (4) The DSAEF_LTP model demonstrates its ability to flexibly adjust and screen historically similar TCs (tropical cyclones) according to the latest observations and forecast of tracks, allowing for the reasonable retention of similar TCs and their associated precipitation distributions, which enhances the effect of ensemble forecast.

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苏志重,王婧,王新敏,任福民.台风“杜苏芮”(2305)影响福建期间DSAEF_LTP模型降水预报检验[J].海洋气象学报,2025,(1):45-58.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-04-26
  • 最后修改日期:2024-08-23
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-02-21
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