海南岛强台风事件的影响因子探析
作者:
作者单位:

1.南海气象防灾减灾重点实验室,海南 海口 570203 ;2.海南省气候中心,海南 海口 570203

作者简介:

吴胜安,男,博士,正高级工程师,主要从事气候诊断分析与预测研究,wsa01@sohu.com。

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中图分类号:

P444

基金项目:

海南省自然科学基金青年基金项目(423QN319);中国气象局复盘总结专项(FPZJ2023-103);国家自然科学基金项目(41785005)


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Analysis on influencing factors of violent typhoon events affecting Hainan Island
Author:
Affiliation:

1.Key Laboratory of South China Sea Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Hainan Province, Haikou 570203 , China ; 2.Hainan Climate Center, Haikou 570203 , China

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    摘要:

    利用台风资料、海南灾情资料、再分析资料和多种统计分析方法,确定1967—2015年影响海南岛的15个强台风事件并探析海南岛强台风事件(Hainan violent typhoon event,HNVTE)的影响因子。结果表明,HNVTE发生的气候背景信息表现为多时间尺度因子的协同作用:1980年代后期西北太平洋副热带高压(以下简称“西北太平洋副高”)突变式变强可能为HNVTE的减少提供了年代际尺度背景,厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(El Nio-Southern Oscillation,ENSO)和平流层准两年振荡(quasi-biennial oscillation,QBO)的共同作用提供了HNVTE变化的年际异常背景。西北太平洋副高突变前出现中等强度的La Nia状态和突变后出现中等强度的El Nio状态均有利于HNVTE发生,而平流层西风位相下低层强西风切变则会抑制这两种状态下的HNVTE活动。根据西北太平洋海面温度的年代际位相、ENSO循环位相及强度和QBO位相及强度构建的BEST-QBO协同作用指数能很好地识别HNVTE的发生,可为HNVTE的气候预测提供有用的信号

    Abstract:

    Based on typhoon data, natural disaster data of Hainan, reanalysis data, and using several statistical analysis methods, 15 violent typhoon events affecting Hainan Island are selected from 1967 to 2015, and the influencing factors of HNVTE (Hainan violent typhoon event) are analyzed. The results show that the climatic background of HNVTE is under the joint influence of multi-time scale factors. The abrupt change of the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) getting stronger in the late 1980s may provide the interdecadal-scale background for the decrease of HNVTE, and the combined action of ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) and stratospheric QBO (quasi-biennial oscillation) provides an interannual anomaly background for the variation of HNVTE. The moderate La Niña state before the abrupt change of WNPSH and the moderate El Niño state after the abrupt change of WNPSH are both favorable for the occurrence of HNVTE, but the HNVTE activity in the two states is inhibited by the low-level strong westerly shear under the stratospheric westerly phase. The occurrence of HNVTE can be well identified by the BEST-QBO synergy index constructed from the SST (sea surface temperature) interdecadal phase of the western North Pacific, ENSO cyclic phase and intensity, and QBO phase and intensity, which can provide a useful signal for the climatic prediction of HNVTE.

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吴胜安,邢彩盈,朱晶晶.海南岛强台风事件的影响因子探析[J].海洋气象学报,2025,(1):59-68.

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  • 收稿日期:2022-10-24
  • 最后修改日期:2023-11-08
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-02-21
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