CMIP6气候模式对山东省极端气温的模拟评估及未来情景预估
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1.山东省气象防灾减灾重点实验室;2.潍坊市气象局;3.重庆市荣昌区气象局

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P732.7?

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国家自然科学基金(41775044);山东省自然科学基金(ZR2023MD118,ZR2021MD010);山东省气象局重点项目(2024sdqxz10;2018sdqxz08);中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2023J015);山东省气象局青年项目(2023SDQN14);山东大城市气象服务关键技术创新团队项目(SDCXTD2023-1)


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Evaluation and Projection of Extreme Temperature Indices in Shandong by CMIP6 Models
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    摘要:

    基于CMIP6气候模式资料及CN05.1观测数据,对CMIP6气候模式在山东省的极端气温指数的模拟情况进行评估。同时,对未来不同时间段3个共享社会经济路径情景(Shared Socioeconomic Pathways,SSPs)下未来极端气温指数的变化趋势进行预估,并分析了不同SSPs情景下极端气温指数的时空变化特征。结果显示,相对于基准期的1995—2014年,山东极端最高气温(TXx)、极端最低气温(TNn)未来呈上升趋势,TNn相较于TXx增温更明显。而霜冻日数(FD)、冰冻日数(ID)呈减少趋势。从空间分布来看,未来TXx的极高值与TNn的极低值都出现在鲁西北,TXx的极低值与TNn的极高值都出现在鲁东南及山东半岛,FD、ID均在鲁北最多。

    Abstract:

    Based on CMIP6 Climate model and CN05.1 grid observation data, the simulation situation of the extreme temperature indices in the Shandong region by the CMIP6 models is evaluated. Meanwhile, the changing trends of the future extreme temperature indices in Shandong Province under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) scenarios in different future time periods are predicted, and the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of the extreme temperature indices under different SSPs scenarios are also explored in depth. The estimated results show that, compared with the base period from 1995 to 2014, the annual maximum value of daily maximum temperature (TXx), and annual minimum value of daily minimum temperature (TNn), in Shandong Province will show an upward trend in the future. And the warming of the extreme minimum temperature will be more obvious than that of the extreme maximum temperature. While the number of frost days (FD), andicing days (ID) all show a decreasing trend. From the perspective of spatial distribution, in the future, both the highest value of TXx and the lowest value of TNn will appear in the northwestern region of Shandong Province. The number of FD and ID will be the largest in the northern part of Shandong.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-01-08
  • 最后修改日期:2025-04-06
  • 录用日期:2025-04-14
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