基于降水适宜度的金银花气象指数保险纯费率厘定
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1.山东省气象防灾减灾重点实验室,临沂市气象局;2.临沂市气象局;3.山东农业大学

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国家重点研发计划项目(2024YFD2301301);山东省气象局气象榜单类专项(2023SDBD14)


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Determination of pure premium rate for honeysuckle meteorological index insurance based on precipitation suitability
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    摘要:

    利用平邑县1998—2024年金银花产量和气象资料,以金银花降水适宜度为气象指数,构建了金银花降水适宜度—减产率模型,基于拟合优度检验法确定了减产率概率和等级,进行了金银花保险纯费率厘定。结果表明:受气象条件年际差异影响,平邑金银花2001—2024年气象产量波动较大,减产年概率达41.7%。金银花降水适宜度—减产率最佳关系为二次多项式回归模型,金银花降水适宜度越小,金银花减产率越大,当降水适宜度为0时,金银花减产率最大,达到68.874%。利用减产率分布模型法和经典燃烧分析法厘定平邑金银花保险纯费率为4.01%,可为农业保险产品设计提供科学依据。

    Abstract:

    The yield and meteorological data of honeysuckle in Pingyi County from 1998 to 2024 were used to construct a honeysuckle precipitation suitability-yield reduction rate model with honeysuckle precipitation suitability as the meteorological index. Based on the goodness of fit test method, the probability and grade of yield reduction rate were determined, and then the pure premium rate of honeysuckle insurance was determined. The results showed that due to the interannual differences in meteorological conditions, the meteorological yield of Pingyi honeysuckle fluctuated greatly from 2001 to 2024, and the annual probability of yield reduction was 41.7 %. The best relationship between precipitation suitability and yield reduction rate of honeysuckle is quadratic polynomial regression model. The smaller the precipitation suitability of honeysuckle, the greater the yield reduction rate of honeysuckle. When the precipitation suitability is 0, the yield reduction rate of honeysuckle is the highest, reaching 68.874%. The pure premium rate of Pingyi honeysuckle insurance was determined to be 4.01% by using the yield reduction rate distribution model method and the classical burning analysis method, which could provide scientific basis for the design of agricultural insurance products.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-01-17
  • 最后修改日期:2025-03-21
  • 录用日期:2025-04-11
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