龙卷监测预报预警技术进展
DOI:
作者:
作者单位:

1.国家气象中心,北京 100081 ;2.中国气象局水文气象重点开放实验室,北京 100081

作者简介:

郑永光,zhengyg@cma.gov.cn。

通讯作者:

中图分类号:

P445;P456

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目(U2342204);中国气象局强对流天气重点创新团队项目(CMA2022ZD07)


请扫码阅读

Advances in monitoring, forecasting and early warning technology of tornado
Author:
Affiliation:

1.National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081 , China ; 2.China Meteorological Administration Key Open Laboratory of Hydrology and Meteorology, Beijing 100081 , China

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 资源附件
  • |
  • 文章评论
    摘要:

    强对流天气预报业务是业务预报的难点之一,而龙卷监测预报预警则是强对流天气预报业务的难点。文中简要总结美国、欧洲和中国龙卷监测预报业务的发展历程,重点总结中气旋龙卷的监测和短期短时临近预报技术进展。龙卷时空尺度小,短期短时预报时效只能预报其有利环境条件和中尺度形成机制,强龙卷指数和最大上升气流螺旋度分别是短期和短时预报龙卷的特征物理量。中气旋龙卷监测依赖于双偏振多普勒天气雷达观测的龙卷涡旋特征和双偏振量演变特征,这些特征可以监测龙卷的形成和消散。准线状对流系统产生的龙卷依然很难直接判识和预警,但该类风暴的中涡旋与龙卷关系较为密切,已发展了利用垂直风切变和雷达双偏振量特征判识该类风暴中涡旋发展的技术方法。使用物理方法、随机森林或深度学习的龙卷监测识别和临近预报技术能力显著提升。龙卷监测预报预警能力当前依然存在很大不足,未来仍需要更多探测手段帮助提升监测识别能力、深化机理认识、发展超高分辨率数值模式和人工智能技术提升预报预警能力,更要发挥预报员的主观能动性和关键作用。

    Abstract:

    Severe convective weather forecasting is one of the challenging tasks in forecasting operations, with the monitoring, forecasting and early warning of tornado being particularly difficult within this field. This paper briefly summarizes the history of tornado monitoring and forecasting operations in the United States, Europe and China, focusing on the advances in the monitoring, short-range and short-term forecasting and early warning technology of mesocyclone tornadoes. Tornadoes are of a small spatiotemporal scale, and short-range and short-term forecasting can only predict their favorable environmental conditions and mesoscale formation mechanisms, respectively. The significant tornado parameter (STP) and the maximum updraft helicity (UH) are the effective physical variables for short-range and short-term forecasting of tornadoes, respectively. The monitoring of mesocyclone tornadoes relies on the tornadic vortex signatures and polarimetric observations from dual-polarization Doppler weather radar, which can monitor the formation and dissipation of tornadoes. It is still difficult to directly identify the tornadoes produced by quasi-linear convective systems, but the relationship between mesovortices and tornadoes in such storms is relatively close, and technical methods have been developed to use vertical wind shear and radar dual-polarization characteristics to identify the development of mesovortices in such storms. The ability to identify and forecast tornadoes using physical laws, random forests, or deep learning methods has significantly improved, while there are still significant shortcomings in the monitoring, forecasting and early warning capabilities of tornadoes. In future, we need to improve monitoring and identification capabilities with more observing or detecting methods, deepen understanding of mechanisms, develop ultra-high resolution numerical weather prediction models and artificial intelligence methods to enhance forecasting and early warning capabilities. It is even more crucial to fully leverage the subjective initiative and pivotal role of forecasters.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文

郑永光,杨波,周康辉,等.龙卷监测预报预警技术进展[J].海洋气象学报,2025,45(2):1-13.

复制
分享
文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
  • HTML阅读次数:
  • 引用次数:
文章历史
  • 收稿日期:2024-12-20
  • 最后修改日期:
  • 录用日期:
  • 在线发布日期: 2025-04-27
  • 出版日期: