台风“格美”(2403)的主要特点和预报难点分析
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国家气象中心

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国家重点研发计划资助(项目编号:2023YFC31079002)和国家自然科学基金项目(42175016)共同资助。


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Lyu Xinyan1 Xiang Chunyi1 ?Dong Lin1 Xu Yinglong1Zhang Ling1 ?Zhao Dajun2
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    摘要:

    综合利用中央气象台主观预报、站点观测、ECMWF再分析资料以及各家数值预报模式以及集合预报系统等多源资料,对2024年台风“格美”主要特点进行了归纳,并针对不同阶段预报难点问题进行分析与讨论,主要结论如下:(1)“格美”在菲律宾以东洋面生成后逐渐增强,先后登陆台湾宜兰和福建莆田,给我国带来了大范围强风雨影响,14个国家级气象观测站日降水量破历史极值,具有较强极端性。(2)“格美”生成初期,大气环流处于动态调整期,且与“派比安”同一天生成,双台风相互作用进一步加剧了路径预报的难度,主观预报虽然做了正技巧订正,但台风路径预报仍然存在较大的偏差。(3)台湾地形复杂作用给“格美”过台湾岛前后路径预报带来了高度的不确定性,极大地增加了“格美”登陆精准预报的难度,但高分辨率数值模式对复杂地形下路径小尺度摆动(如回旋)预报具有较好的预报能力。(4)“格美”后期在江西北部突然转向西行,中央气象台路径预报出现了大幅度的偏差,主要因为其处于复杂的“鞍型场”环境中,移动路径对周围环流系统的微小变化异常敏感,极大地降低了后期台风路径的可预报性,这也是“格美”登陆后期数值模式和主观路径预报出现较大偏差的重要原因。但风清等AI大模型在路径西折预报中却展现出了独特的优势,未来应加强对AI气象大模型的认识与应用。陆上台风路径影响因素多而复杂多变,预报难度远高于海上,今后需要深入开展陆上台风路径变化的机理研究,提高对陆上台风路径变化的认识。

    Abstract:

    Using the subjective forecasts, and the observation data of China's automatic weather station (AWS) observations, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis data, the Characteristics and Forecasting difficulties of Typhoon Gaemi are analyzed. The results as following: (1) Gaemi gradually intensified after forming over east sea of the Philippines and made landfall in Yilan, Taiwan and Putian, Fujian successively, bringing widespread and intense wind and rain impacts. Daily precipitation at 14 national meteorological observatories broke historical records, demonstrating strong extremity. (2) During the formation stage of Gaemi, the atmospheric circulation was in a dynamic adjustment stage, and it formed concurrently with Prapiroon. The binary interaction between the two typhoon vortices further added the difficulty of track forecasting. Although subjective forecasts have positive skill corrections, significant deviations still existed in the typhoon track forecasts. (3) The complex terrain of Taiwan caused high uncertainty into the track forecasting of Typhoon Gaemi before and after it crossed the Taiwan island, greatly increasing the challenge of accurate landing forecasts. However, high-resolution numerical models have certain advantages in forecasting small-scale fluctuations (such as track loops) in the track under complex terrain conditions. (4) Gaemi suddenly turned westward in northern Jiangxi, leading to a significant deviation in the track forecast This was because Gaemi was in a complex saddle-shaped environment, where its movement was extremely sensitive to minor changes in the surrounding circulation systems, greatly reducing the predictability of the typhoon's later track. Nevertheless, AI-models such as Fengqing demonstrated unique advantages in forecasting the westward turn of the track. In the future, we will enhance our understanding and application of AI meteorological models. The factors influencing the track of typhoon over land are more and complex, making forecasting much more challenging than that over the sea. In the future, it is necessary to conduct in-depth research on the mechanisms of typhoon track changes over land to enhance our understanding of them.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-02-25
  • 最后修改日期:2025-05-24
  • 录用日期:2025-05-26
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《海洋气象学报》第一届青年编委会委员招募启事

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