冬季黄渤海海上大风年代际变化特征及可能机制分析
作者:
作者单位:

1.烟台市气象局,山东 烟台 264003 ;2.长岛国家气候观象台,山东 长岛 265800 ;3.烟台市牟平区气象局,山东 牟平 264100 ;4.山东省气象台,山东 济南 250031 ;5.中国海洋大学海洋与大气学院,山东 青岛 266100

作者简介:

郭浩康,croharca@163.com。
李春,lichun7603@ouc.edu.cn。

通讯作者:

中图分类号:

P461.2

基金项目:

国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFF0805102);烟台市气象局青年专项(2025YTQN01)


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Analysis on interdecadal variation characteristics and possible mechanisms of the strong breeze over the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea in winter
Author:
Affiliation:

1.Yantai Meteorological Service, Yantai 264003 , China ; 2.Changdao National Climatology Observatory, Changdao 265800 , China ; 3.Muping Meteorological Service of Yantai, Muping 264100 , China ; 4.Shandong Meteorological Observatory, Jinan 250031 , China ; 5.College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100 , China

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    摘要:

    基于美国航空航天局的CCMP(Cross-Calibrated Multi-Platform)3.1版海面风数据等资料,结合Mann-Kendall趋势检验等方法,对冬季黄渤海海上大风频次异常变化特征进行分析,并探究其在年代际尺度上的可能影响因子。结果表明:(1)1993—2008年,渤海、渤海海峡和黄海西北部的冬季大风频次呈显著增长趋势,2009年后变化趋缓。(2)年代际尺度上去除长期趋势后,1996—2020年,11月北大西洋海面温度异常(sea surface temperature anomaly,SSTA)呈三极型模态。当SSTA呈“+、-、+”位相时,冬季北大西洋上空850 hPa出现负位相的北大西洋涛动(North Atlantic Oscillation,NAO),同时250 hPa上的罗斯贝(Rossby)波列沿负位相NAO活跃处向下游黄渤海及日本海一带传播,引起的环流形势异常利于冷空气在寒潮关键区积聚与爆发。此时,黄渤海上空850 hPa存在经向温度梯度负异常,有利于高空动量下传,产生寒潮大风。(3)保留数据长期趋势时,11月巴伦支海北部和喀拉海海冰密集度异常(sea ice concentration anomaly,SICA)在1993—2008年呈显著下降趋势,与同年冬季北极涛动显著负相关。同时冬季250 hPa上的Rossby波列从北极向黄渤海和日本海一带传播,500 hPa上乌拉尔阻塞增强,贝加尔湖出现异常低压,利于北极冷空气向寒潮关键区的输送和积累,黄渤海上空850 hPa出现经向温度梯度负异常。而2009年以来北极SICA趋势变化不显著,与之对应的冬季乌拉尔阻塞高压异常偏弱,贝加尔湖上空为异常高压,不利于冷空气输送积聚及黄渤海寒潮大风的爆发。

    Abstract:

    Based on the data such as sea surface wind from Cross-Calibrated Multi-Platform (CCMP) version 3.1 provided by NASA, combined with the methods such as Mann-Kendall trend test, the anomalous variation characteristics of the strong breeze frequency over the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea in winter are analyzed, and the possible influencing factors on the interdecadal time scale are explored. The results are outlined below. (1) From 1993 to 2008, the strong breeze frequency over the Bohai Sea, Bohai Strait and northwestern Yellow Sea shows an overall upward trend. However, the variation has decelerated since 2009. (2) After removing the long-term trend on the interdecadal scale, the North Atlantic sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in November shows a tripolar mode from 1996 to 2020. When the SSTA shows a “+, -, +” phase, a negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) appears at 850 hPa above the sea surface in winter. Meanwhile, a Rossby wave train propagates downstream from the area of negative phase of NAO to the Yellow Sea, Bohai Sea and Sea of Japan at 250 hPa, which is conducive to the accumulation of cold air in the key area and the outbreak of cold waves. In winter, there is a negative anomaly of meridional temperature gradient at 850 hPa over the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea, contributing to the downward transfer of high-altitude momentum and the outbreak of cold waves and strong breeze. (3) When it retains the long-term trend of the data, the sea ice concentration anomaly (SICA) in the northern Barents Sea and Kara Sea in November from 1993 to 2008 shows a significant downward trend, which is negatively correlated with the Arctic oscillation in winter. The Rossby wave train at 250 hPa spreads from the Arctic to the Yellow Sea, Bohai Sea and Sea of Japan, while the Ural blocking at 500 hPa intensifies, and an abnormally low pressure occurs over Lake Baikal, which is conducive to the transport and accumulation of cold air from the Arctic to the key area of the cold wave, and the occurrence of a negative anomaly of meridional temperature gradient at 850 hPa over the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea. The SICA in the Arctic in November has not changed significantly since 2009, the corresponding Ural blocking high pressure is abnormally weak, and an abnormally high pressure appears over Lake Baikal in winter, which is not in favor of the transport and accumulation of cold air in the key area, as well as the outbreak of strong breeze over the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea in winter.

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郭浩康,秦璐,于腾飞,等.冬季黄渤海海上大风年代际变化特征及可能机制分析[J].海洋气象学报,2025,45(3):84-95.

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  • 收稿日期:2024-11-29
  • 最后修改日期:2025-01-06
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-07-01
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