融合人工智能气象大模型的热带气旋路径集成预报技术研究
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上海中心气象台

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上海市自然科学基金面上项目(21ZR1462700)


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Consensus forecast technology for tropical cyclone tracks by integrating AI weather prediction models
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Shanghai Central Meteorological Observatory

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    摘要:

    为了提升西北太平洋热带气旋(tropical cyclone, TC)的路径集成预报效果,本文融合人工智能(artificial intelligence, AI)气象大模型与数值天气预报(numerical weather prediction, NWP)模式,基于简单多模式平均(AVG)、选择性平均(SEAV)、选择性变权重平均(SECW)三种方法,构建了多组集成方案,并评估它们对2023—2024年西北太平洋TC的路径预报效果。结果表明,AI的路径预报效果在短时效不如NWP,但在长时效优势显著。3组融合AI与NWP的集成预报,结合了两种预报手段的优势,整体优于只包含NWP的集成方案,同时在72 h内优于只包含AI的集成方案。综合多种评价指标,72 h之内,AI+NWP_SECW方案的路径预报效果最好,误差较上海台风研究所的业务路径集成预报(SSTC)降低10~30%,在96~120 h,则以AI_AVG方案最优,误差较SSTC方案降低23~31%,但AI_AVG方案的样本稳定性不如融合AI与NWP的集成预报。

    Abstract:

    To improve the consensus forecast of tropical cyclone (TC) tracks over the Northwestern Pacific, artificial intelligence (AI) weather prediction models are integrated with numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, and several consensus forecast schemes are constructed based on simple multi-model average (AVG), selective average (SEAV), and selective change-weighted average (SECW) methods. These schemes are evaluated for their TC track performance during 2023–2024. It is found that compared to NWP models, AI models exhibit weaker performance in short-term forecast, but much better performance in long-term forecast. Three integrated schemes combining AI and NWP leverage the strengths of both approaches, and they are proven to overall outperform pure NWP consensus schemes, while surpassing the pure AI consensus scheme within 72 h. Comprehensive evaluations indicate that the AI+NWP_SECW scheme achieves the best track performance within 72 h (10–30% error reduction from the SSTC), whereas the AI_AVG scheme is identified as optimal at 96–120 h (23–31% error reduction from the SSTC). However, the sample stability of the AI_AVG scheme is shown to be inferior to that of the integrated consensus schemes.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-03-10
  • 最后修改日期:2025-06-20
  • 录用日期:2025-06-23
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《海洋气象学报》第一届青年编委会委员招募启事

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