近年来太平洋经向模态的增强及机理探究
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作者单位:

1.中国海洋大学海洋与大气学院;2.中国海洋大学物理海洋教育部重点实验室

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中图分类号:

P732.7

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金重大项目(42230405,42230405);国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFF0805100);山东省自然科学基金重大基础研究项目(ZR2019ZD12)


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The enhancement of the Pacific Meridional Mode in recent years and the investigation of its mechanisms
Author:
Affiliation:

1.College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Ocean University of China;2.Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography of Ministry of Education,Ocean University of China

Fund Project:

The National Natural Science Foundation of China (42230405, 41975092); the National Key R&D Program of China (2023YFF0805100); the Shandong Natural Science Foundation Project (ZR2019ZD12)

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    摘要:

    使用1955—2024年ERSSTv5逐月海表面温度(sea surface temperature,SST)资料、ERA5再分析数据集中10m风、10m风速、海平面气压(sea level pressure,SLP)、潜热通量、2m气温、2m露点等数据资料,通过最大协方差分析定义太平洋经向模态(Pacific Meridional Mode,PMM),结合风—蒸发—SST(Wind-Evaporation-SST,WES)反馈分解、回归分析等多种统计学方法,探究历史观测时期PMM的长期变化趋势,并从大气变率、副热带海气反馈等方面探讨其发生变化的可能原因。结果表明: 自1990年以来,PMM强度显著增强,且在春季也呈增强趋势。该增强信号主要归因于中高纬度大气变率与副热带海气反馈的协同加强作用。一方面,北太平洋涛动(North Pacific Oscillation,NPO)对PMM的驱动效应显著增强,冬季SLP异常通过调控潜热通量及表面风场,增强了副热带北太平洋SST对大气强迫的敏感性,且与NPO相关的副热带北太平洋春季SST异常与春季 PMM强度在研究的几十年中高度相关。另一方面,副热带北太平洋的WES反馈强度在1990年以后显著增强,进一步放大了PMM相关的SST异常。其增强主要来自于副热带北太平洋背景SST的持续增暖与相对湿度的降低的共同作用。

    Abstract:

    This study uses monthly sea surface temperature (SST) data from the ERSSTv5 dataset, along with 10-m wind, 10-m wind speed, sea level pressure (SLP), latent heat flux, 2-m air temperature, and 2-m dew point data from the ERA5 reanalysis during 1955-2024. The Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM) is defined via maximum covariance analysis. Using a combination of statistical methods including the decomposition of Wind-Evaporation-SST (WES) feedback and regression analysis, we investigate the long-term trends of PMM and explore potential mechanisms driving its variations from the perspectives of atmospheric variability and subtropical feedback. The results reveal a significant intensification of PMM since 1990, with a strengthening trend also evident during spring. The enhancement of PMM is attributed to the synergistic effects of mid-to-high-latitude atmospheric variability and subtropical feedback. On the one hand, the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) exhibits a strengthened influence on PMM, where winter SLP anomalies enhance the sensitivity of subtropical North Pacific SST to atmospheric forcing by modulating latent heat flux and surface wind fields. Notably, NPO-related spring SST anomalies in the subtropical North Pacific show a high correlation with spring PMM intensity over the study period. On the other hand, the WES feedback intensity in the subtropical North Pacific has significantly strengthened since 1990, further amplifying PMM-associated SST anomalies. This enhancement primarily stems from the combined effects of sustained background SST warming and reduced relative humidity in the subtropical North Pacific.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-04-10
  • 最后修改日期:2025-06-01
  • 录用日期:2025-06-05
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《海洋气象学报》第一届青年编委会委员招募启事

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