台风“格美”(2403)的主要特点和预报难点分析
作者:
作者单位:

1.国家气象中心,北京 100081 ;2.中国气象科学研究院,北京 100081

作者简介:

吕心艳,lvxy@cma.gov.cn。

通讯作者:

中图分类号:

P458.1+24

基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目(42175016);国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3107902)


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Analysis on characteristics and forecasting difficulties of Typhoon Gaemi (2403)
Author:
Affiliation:

1.National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081 , China ; 2.Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081 , China

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    摘要:

    综合利用中央气象台台风预报、站点观测、ERA5再分析资料以及各主要业务数值预报和集合预报等资料,对2024年台风“格美”演变特点、不同阶段路径预报难点进行分析,结论如下:(1)“格美”先后登陆台湾宜兰和福建莆田,给中国带来了大范围强风雨影响,14个国家级气象观测站日降水量破历史极值,具有较强极端性。(2)“格美”与台风“派比安”同一天生成,双台风相互作用加剧初生阶段路径预报难度,主观订正预报有正技巧但仍存在较大偏差。(3)地形作用给“格美”过台湾岛前后路径预报带来不确定性,增加精准预报“格美”登陆的难度;高分辨率数值模式对复杂地形下路径小尺度摆动(如回旋)预报具有较好的预报能力。(4)“格美”登陆福建莆田后移至江西北部时突然转向西行,主要因为其处在复杂的“鞍型场”中,路径对环流系统的微小变化异常敏感,这导致了数值模式和中央气象台路径预报均出现较大偏差。(5)风清等AI气象模型对“格美”路径西折预报有一定优势,未来应加强对AI气象模型的认识与应用。台风陆上路径影响因素复杂,预报难度远高于海上,今后需要深入开展陆上台风路径变化的机理研究,提高对陆上台风路径变化的认识。

    Abstract:

    Using the typhoon forecasts from National Meteorological Center, the observation data of China’s automatic weather stations, ERA5 reanalysis data, main operational numerical models and ensemble forecasts, the evolution and track forecasting difficulties of Typhoon Gaemi (2403) during different stages are analyzed. The results are as follows. (1) Gaemi successively made landfall in Yilan, Taiwan and Putian, Fujian, bringing widespread and intense wind and rain impacts. The daily precipitation at 14 national meteorological observing stations broke historical records, demonstrating strong extremity. (2) During the formation stage of Gaemi when the atmospheric circulation is in a dynamic adjustment stage, it forms concurrently with Typhoon Prapiroon. The binary interaction between the two typhoon vortices further adds the difficulty of track forecasts. Although subjective forecasts have positive skill of corrections, significant deviations still exist in the typhoon track forecasts. (3) The complex terrain of Taiwan causes high uncertainty into the track forecasts of Typhoon Gaemi before and after it crosses the Taiwan Island, greatly increasing the challenge of accurate landing forecasts. However, high-resolution numerical models have certain advantages in forecasting small-scale fluctuations (such as track loops) in the track under complex terrain conditions. (4) After landing in Putian, Fujian, Gaemi suddenly turns to move westward in the northwest of Jiangxi, leading to significant deviations both in the track forecasts by numerical models and National Meteorological Center. This is because Gaemi is in a complex saddle-shaped environment, where its movement is extremely sensitive to minor changes in the surrounding circulation systems. (5) Nevertheless, AI models such as Fengqing demonstrate unique advantages in forecasting the westward turn of the track. In the future, forecasters should enhance the understanding and application of AI meteorological models. The factors influencing the typhoon track over land are complex, making the forecasting much more challenging than that over the sea. It is necessary to conduct in-depth research on the mechanisms of changes in the typhoon track over land to enhance the understanding of them.

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引用本文

吕心艳,向纯怡,许映龙,等.台风“格美”(2403)的主要特点和预报难点分析[J].海洋气象学报,2025,45(5):13-23.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-02-25
  • 最后修改日期:2025-05-24
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-10-30
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