盘古气象模型在山东的预报检验和评估初探
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山东省气象台

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山东省气象局重点项目(2023sdqxz02)


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A Preliminary Study on Forecast Verification and Evaluation of the Pangu-Weather Model in Shandong Province
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Shandong Meteorological Observatory

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Shandong Meteorological Bureau Scientific Research Project(2023sdqxz02)

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    摘要:

    通过对比检验基于欧洲中期天气预报中心全球模式(ECMWF)、中国气象局全球预报系统(CMA-GFS)和美国国家环境预报中心全球预报系统(NCEP-GFS)三种输入场驱动的盘古气象模型预报产品(分别记为EC_PG、CMA_PG和NCEP_PG,统称为三个盘古模型)和ECMWF预报产品(记为EC),对2024年8—12月山东地区地面及高空气象要素预报性能进行了初步评估。结果表明:(1)2m气温:EC_PG在168小时时效内RMSE和ACC指标最优;相较于EC,三个盘古模型均能有效减小夜间高的误差和对山东平原地区在下午17时(北京时)的低估有所改进。(2)10m风:EC_PG在168小时时效内在风速评分、风向评分等全面领先;相较于EC,三个盘古模型能有效减小风速夜间预报误差;各盘古模型和EC整体呈现夜间风速高估、白天低估趋势。(3)高空(500hPa、700hPa和850hpa)要素:在72小时预报时效内,三个盘古模型在各层比湿预报均优于EC,其中CMA_PG表现最佳。在三个盘古模型中EC_PG对各层温度和风速预报表现最优;相较于EC,EC_PG对章丘站各层温度的预报改进显著,对青岛站850hPa风速预报不如EC。总体而言,在评估的三种盘古模型中,EC_PG展现出最优的综合预报性能;在2m气温、10m风速以及500hPa、700hPa和850hPa等关键层次的比湿上,其预报能力显著优于EC模式。本研究为今后系统和全面地检验气象大模型提供了初步思路。

    Abstract:

    This study conducts a comparative analysis of three initial field-driven forecast products (denoted as EC_PG, CMA_PG, and NCEP_PG, collectively known as the three Pangu models) of the Pangu-Weather model, which are based on the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the China Meteorological Administration's Global Forecast System (CMA-GFS), and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction's Global Forecast System (NCEP-GFS). The forecast performance of the Pangu-Weather model is evaluated preliminarily against the ECMWF forecast products (denoted as EC) for surface and upper-air meteorological elements in Shandong from August to December 2024. The main results are as follows: (1) 2m temperature: the EC_PG model has the best RMSE and ACC indexes within the 168-hour forecast horizon; compared with EC, the three Pangu models can effectively reduce the nighttime high errors and improve the underestimation for the Shandong plains at 14:00 p.m. (2) 10m wind: EC_PG leads the wind speed and direction scores within the 168-hour forecast horizon; compared with EC, the three Pangu models can effectively reduce the night-time high wind speed error; the three Pangu models and EC show an overall trend of overestimation of wind speed at night and underestimation during the day. (3) Upper-air (500hPa, 700hPa, and 850hPa) elements: Within the 72-hour forecast period, the three Pangu models outperform the EC at all levels of specific humidity, with CMA_PG performing the best. Among the three Pangaea models, EC_PG has the best performance in forecasting temperature and wind speed in all layers; compared with EC, EC_PG has significantly improved the forecast of temperature in all layers at Zhangqiu station, and the forecast of wind speed at 850hPa at Qingdao station is not as good as EC. Overall, among the three Pangu models evaluated, EC_PG has the optimal integrated forecasting performance; its forecasting ability is significantly better than that of the EC model for key meteorological elements such as 2m temperature, 10m wind speed and specific humidity in each layer (500hPa, 700hPa and 850hPa). This study provides initial ideas for doing systematic and comprehensive tests of meteorological macromodels in the future.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-05-14
  • 最后修改日期:2025-07-10
  • 录用日期:2025-07-11
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