近40年北极海冰及近地面风压场长期变化趋势分析
作者:
作者单位:

1.宁夏回族自治区石嘴山市气象局,宁夏 石嘴山 753000 ;2.南京信息工程大学大气科学学院,江苏 南京 210044

作者简介:

刘亭萱,1252033723@qq.com。

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中图分类号:

P467

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Analysis on long-term variation trend of Arctic sea ice and near-surface wind/pressure field in recent 40 years
Author:
Affiliation:

1.Shizuishan Meteorological Service, Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, Shizuishan 753000 , China ; 2.School of Atmospheric Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044 , China

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    摘要:

    基于1979—2020年美国国家冰雪数据中心海冰密集度反演资料和ERA-Interim再分析资料,利用集合经验模态分解方法对此段时间的海冰和大气风压场变化进行分析。结果显示:(1)海冰覆盖面积范围近40年来整体呈现缩减的趋势,缩减速率约为1.4×103 km2/(10 a)。其中,巴伦支海和喀拉海海域的海冰密集度下降趋势最为显著。同时,海冰覆盖面积在夏季的9月达最小值,在冬季的3月达最大值。(2)1979—2014年,极地海平面气压场在北极中心呈减弱趋势,北极外部呈增强趋势,其空间分布特征与北极涛动正位相的空间分布特征相似。同时,1979—2014年自大西洋吹向巴伦支海海域的地面风有增强趋势,考虑表层风场对海表洋流以及海冰的拖曳作用等,进而推测来自大西洋的温暖海水在巴伦支海海域将有所增多,从而可能造成该区域海冰消融。

    Abstract:

    Based on the retrieval data of sea ice concentration from the U.S. National Snow and Ice Data Center and ERA-Interim data from 1979 to 2020, this paper makes use of the ensemble empirical mode decomposition method to analyze the variations of the sea ice and atmospheric wind/pressure field during this period. The results are shown below. (1) The sea ice coverage area has shown a decreasing trend in the past 40 years, and the decreasing rate is about 1.4×103 km2/(10 a). Among them, the decreasing trend of the sea ice concentration in the Barents Sea and Kara Sea is the most significant. At the same time, the sea ice coverage area reaches a minimum in September (summer) and a maximum in March (winter). (2) The polar sea-level pressure field shows a decreasing trend in the center of the Arctic and an increasing trend outside the Arctic from 1979 to 2014, and its spatial distribution characteristics are similar to those of the positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation. At the same time, the surface wind blowing from the Atlantic Ocean to the Barents Sea has an increasing trend from 1979 to 2014. Considering the dragging effect of the surface wind field on the surface current and sea ice, it is speculated that the warm water from the Atlantic Ocean will increase in the Barents Sea, which may cause the sea ice to melt in the area.

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刘亭萱,董慧杰.近40年北极海冰及近地面风压场长期变化趋势分析[J].海洋气象学报,2025,45(6):118-127.

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  • 收稿日期:2022-11-19
  • 最后修改日期:2024-10-28
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  • 在线发布日期: 2025-12-19
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