雷达定量估测降水组网产品在广东前汛期的对比分析
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1.广东省韶关市气象局;2.广东省气象台

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Intercomparison of Quantitative Precipitation Estimation Products Based on Radar Network during the Pre-Flood Season in Guangdong Province
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1.Shaoguan Meteorological Service;2.Guangdong Meteorological Observatory,Guangzhou

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    摘要:

    为进一步对比由不同高度CAPPI产品反演而成的雷达估测降水组网产品(Quantitative Precipitation Estimation,QPE)在广东不同区域监测能力,基于站点逐时观测降水资料,利用Taylor统计、综合评分等评估指标对广东省前汛期逐时雷达QPE产品进行分区检验对比,并从中选取不同降水类型降水个例进行对比,结果表明:广东全省双偏振QPE质量优于单偏振QPE,随着降水强度的增大,双偏振雷达QPE的估测精度表现越好,其中基于双偏振2.5km高度的CAPPI产品反演获得的QPE产品(QPE_2.5)的综合表现能力最好;沿海区和过渡区在QPE_2.5和QPE_1.5表现更好,内陆区在QPE_2.5和QPE_3.0表现更好;从不同类型降水的个例对比可知,单/双偏振QPE对季风型降水的整体评分优于锋面型降水,其中双偏振QPE对季风型降水表现更为稳定,季风型降水为QPE_2.0质量更佳,锋面型降水QPE_1.5的表现更佳。

    Abstract:

    To further compare the regional precipitation monitoring performance of radar network-based Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) products (from CAPPI data at different heights) across Guangdong Province, this study validated and compared hourly radar QPE products during Guangdong’s pre-flood season . The analysis utilized hourly gauge-observed precipitation data and employed evaluation metrics including Taylor statistics and comprehensive scores, with additional comparisons of cases across different precipitation types. The main conclusions were as follows: dual-polarization QPE outperformed single-polarization QPE across Guangdong Province, with its estimation accuracy improving as precipitation intensity increased; among all products, the dual-polarization QPE derived from 2.5 km-height CAPPI data (QPE_2.5) exhibited the best overall performance. QPE_2.5 and QPE_1.5 performed better in coastal and transitional regions, while QPE_2.5 and QPE_3.0 showed superior performance in inland regions. Case comparisons across precipitation types revealed that both single- and dual-polarization QPE achieved higher comprehensive scores for monsoon rainfall than for frontal rainfall. Specifically, dual-polarization QPE demonstrated more stable performance for monsoon rainfall—with QPE_2.0 being the most accurate for this type—whereas QPE_1.5 performed best for frontal rainfall.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-07-01
  • 最后修改日期:2025-10-10
  • 录用日期:2025-10-10
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