泰山地区暖季温带气旋统计特征与降水影响分析
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济南市章丘区气象局

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淮河流域气象开放研究基金项目(HRM202420);济南市气象局气象科学技术研究项目(2024jnqxqn02)。


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Statistical characteristics and precipitation impacts of warm-season extratropical cyclones influencing the Mount Tai region
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    摘要:

    基于2010—2022年暖季(5―9月)ERA5再分析资料和国家自动气象站小时降水数据,采用气旋自动识别与追踪方法,系统分析了影响泰山地区的温带气旋活动特征及其降水影响。研究发现:暖季共识别出50个影响泰山地区的温带气旋,年均影响天数7.5天,其中6月气旋频数最高(共13次),但7月影响天数最长。根据气旋中心位置和环流覆盖范围,将温带气旋分为三类:C1类蒙古气旋(19个)中心远离泰山,仅南侧冷锋影响泰山地区造成弱降雨;C2类黄河气旋(26个)中心接近泰山,影响时间最长,是导致泰山地区气旋暴雨的主要类型;C3类气旋(5个)数量最少,多为黄淮气旋和黄河气旋,强度最弱、尺度最小,仅2个气旋造成泰山地区暴雨。降水分析表明,温带气旋降水虽仅占暖季总降水的15%,但对暴雨日贡献率达23%,尤其在泰山西南部站点贡献值高达42%。通过聚类分析将18个气旋暴雨日划分为西部型、北部型和南部型,其中西部型主要降水落区位于山东西部,大值区分布在泰山附近以及鲁西南;南部型暴雨多见于6月至7月上旬,落区位于泰山以南且降水量大;北部型主要出现在7月中旬至8月初,落区位于泰山以北,雨量相对较小。合成分析表明南部型与北部型暴雨均出现在高空槽前和地面气旋暖锋附近,暴雨落区与气旋路径密切相关,降雨强度差异则由低层辐合条件及斜压性强度不同造成。

    Abstract:

    An automatic cyclone identification and tracking method was employed to investigate the characteristics of extratropical cyclones (ETCs) affecting the Mount Tai region and their precipitation impacts, using ERA5 reanalysis data and hourly precipitation records from national automatic weather stations during the warm season (May–September) from 2010 to 2022. A total of 50 extratropical cyclones were identified, with an annual average of 7.5 affected days. Cyclone occurrence peaked in June (13 events), while July exhibited the longest influence duration. According to the cyclone center position and circulation coverage, the cyclones were categorized into three types: C1 (Mongolian cyclones, 19 cases), which remain distant and impact Mount Tai primarily through their southern cold frontal zones, causing weak rainfall; C2, mainly Yellow River cyclones (26 cases), with centers close to Mount Tai, having the longest impact duration and being the primary type causing heavy rainfall; and type C3 (5 cases), the least frequent, mostly Huanghuai and Yellow River cyclones, characterized by the weakest intensity and smallest spatial scale, with only two cases producing heavy rainfall in the Mount Tai region. Although precipitation associated with ETCs accounted for only about 15% of total warm-season rainfall, it contributed up to 23% of heavy-rainfall days, with maximum local contributions reaching 42% in the southwestern part of Mount Tai. Cluster analysis of 18 cyclone-induced heavy-rainfall days classified them into three patterns: western, northern, and southern types. The western type featured precipitation mainly over western Shandong, with maxima around Mount Tai and southwestern Shandong. Southern-type rainfall events mainly occurred from June to early July, with heavier precipitation south of Mount Tai, whereas northern-type events occurred mostly from mid-July to early August, featuring lighter rainfall north of the mountain. Composite analysis indicates that both the southern and northern rainfall types occurred ahead of an upper-level trough and near the surface warm front associated with the cyclone. The rainfall distribution was closely related to the cyclone track, while the difference in rainfall intensity was mainly attributed to variations in low-level convergence and baroclinicity.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-07-08
  • 最后修改日期:2025-11-11
  • 录用日期:2025-11-12
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