天津不同类型输电线路气象综合风险评估方法及应用
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1.天津市气象服务中心;2.国网天津电力公司

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中国气象服务协会重点项目(CMSA2023ZC002)


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Meteorological Comprehensive Risk Assessment Methods and Applications for Different Types of Transmission Lines in Tianjin
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    摘要:

    利用天津地区2016—2021年的气象观测数据和气象相关的输电线路故障数据,分析不同类型输电线路气象风险的时空分布特征,通过计算不同气象等级故障率、灾害停运时间及故障重合率三类影响指标分析灾害故障特征。结果表明:天津地区输电线路气象风险主要来自于大风、雷击和覆冰灾害,在故障率中,三类输电线路中雷击(大风)灾害故障率最高(低);在平均停运时间中,覆冰导致的平均停运时间最长,大风次之,雷击最短;在重合率中,三种类型输电线路均表现为雷击>大风>覆冰。气象灾害对三类输电线路的影响基本表现为35kV>110kV>220kV。基于此,分别建立不同气象灾害、不同输电线路类型的故障率模型,选取故障率、灾害停运时间及故障重合率三类影响指标,构建主客观结合的多气象要素综合风险评估模型,形成以日输电总量减少值为依据的四级风险划分方法。将建立的风险模型应用于某雷雨大风日三类输电线路的风险分析,验证了该评估方法的有效性。

    Abstract:

    Based on the observation data of meteorological stations and meteorological related of transmission lines accident from 2016-2021 in Tianjin, the distribution characteristics of transmission lines accident in three types of transmission lines was found. And analyzes the characteristics of transmission lines accident by calculating the failure rate for different meteorological level, average outage time and the overlap rate. The results show that the meteorological risk of transmission lines in Tianjin mainly caused by strong wind, lightning and snow disasters. Of the accident rate, the lightning (wind) is the highest (low), and decreasing with the ability of transmission; Of the average outage time, ice cover caused the longest average outage time, followed by wind damage, and the shortest lightning time. The impact of meteorological disasters on the three types of transmission lines is basically 35kV> 110kV> 220kV. Based on this, a comprehensive risk assessment method for transmission line considering multiple meteorological factors is introduced. The method was applied to a case in Tianjin and verified its effectiveness

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  • 收稿日期:2025-08-07
  • 最后修改日期:2025-10-11
  • 录用日期:2025-10-11
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