基于SVM算法的气象敏感性电力负荷预测研究
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作者单位:

1.山东省临沂市气象局;2.复旦大学;3.国网山东省电力公司临沂供电公司

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P49

基金项目:

山东省气象局面上项目(2022sdqxm14);山东省气象局引导类项目(2023SDYD31)


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Research on Meteorological-Sensitive Power Load Forecasting Based on SVM Algorithm
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Affiliation:

1.Linyi Meteorological Bureau;2.State Grid Shandong Electric Power Company Linyi Power Supply Company

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    摘要:

    为提升极端气候条件下的电力负荷预测精度,以山东省临沂市2022—2023年逐日电力负荷与气象观测数据为基础,系统分析了负荷的时序特征及气象驱动机制。通过最小二乘法分离气象敏感负荷,揭示了温湿协同作用在负荷变化中的核心地位,并引入温湿指数(Temperature-Humidity Index,THI)量化体感温度效应。进一步构建基于温度响应机制的分区预测模型:以18℃为阈值划分温区,统一采用支持向量机(Support vector machine,SVM)建模。结果表明:1)日负荷呈“夏冬双峰、春秋双谷”特征;2)气温与THI为主导因子,夏季高温高湿条件下THI相关系数达0.942;3)在全温区预测中,SVM 8要素模型R2达0.955,平均相对误差(MRE)为2.54%;分温区模型中低温区(≤18℃)MRE降至2.39%、高温区(>18℃)MRE降至2.52%,平均误差较全温区模型降低3.3%,预测准确率提升至97.54%。研究表明,分温区模型通过解耦热力学响应机制,能精准聚焦响应因子,在极端气候条件下具备更强的适应性与精度,为电力系统精细化调度提供新的技术路径。

    Abstract:

    To improve the accuracy of power load forecasting under extreme climate conditions, this study utilizes daily maximum load and meteorological observations from Linyi City, Shandong Province, during 2022-2023. The temporal characteristics of load and its meteorological drivers are analyzed, and meteorological-sensitive load is separated using the least squares method. The Temperature-Humidity Index (THI) is introduced to quantify thermal comfort effects, highlighting the critical role of temperature-humidity interactions. A temperature-zoning prediction model is developed using 18℃ as the threshold to partition temperature zones, with unified Support Vector Machine (SVM) modeling applied across all zones. Results indicate that: 1) Daily load exhibits a summer-winter dual-peak and spring-autumn dual-valley structure; 2) Temperature and THI dominate, with THI-load correlation reaching 0.942 under hot-humid conditions in August; 3) For the whole temperature range, the SVM 8-factor model achieves R2=0.955 and mean relative error (MRE)=2.54%; in the temperature-zoning model, the low-temperature zone (≤18℃) achieves MRE=2.39% and the high-temperature zone (>18℃) achieves MRE=2.52%, reducing average error by 3.3% compared to the full-range model and achieving 97.54% prediction accuracy. These findings demonstrate that the temperature-zoning model decouples thermodynamic response mechanisms, providing enhanced adaptability and precision under extreme climate conditions and offering a new technical pathway for refined power system dispatching.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-08-27
  • 最后修改日期:2025-11-05
  • 录用日期:2025-11-06
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