Abstract:Using wind field data from 11 observation stations (2 coastal stations and 9 buoy stations) in the central Yellow Sea and ECMWF fine-mesh wind field forecast data during 2016–2021, this study systematically evaluates the bias characteristics of numerical model forecasts for disastrous gales in the China-Korea route sea area by applying correlation analysis, TS score, and error verification methods. The results show that: (1) The ECMWF model has a relatively high correlation with the observed wind speed (R=0.81, passing the 99% confidence test), but the wind speed forecast is systematically overestimated by approximately 1 m/s. The TS score shows a significant downward trend as the wind force increases, and both the false alarm rate and missing report rate of gales above force 8 exceed 50%. (2) The wind direction forecast exhibits a counterclockwise deflection feature, and the accuracy of the comprehensive wind forecast is more than 50% lower than the individual accuracy of wind direction and wind speed forecasts. (3) The spatial distribution indicates that the wind speed error at offshore stations is significantly higher than that at offshore stations, with the southern coastal stations being more pronounced.