山东一次弱切变下罕见大范围脉冲风暴环境条件分析
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山东省气象台

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山东省自然科学(ZR2023MD001)


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Analysis of Environmental Conditions for a Rare Extensive Pulse Storm Event under Weak Shear in Shandong Province
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    摘要:

    利用多源资料对2025年7月7日山东省弱切变下大范围脉冲风暴强对流天气进行分析。结果表明:(1)上干冷、下暖湿“喇叭状”配置的大尺度天气环境是强天气发生的有利条件,天气形势属典型的副高边缘型。(2)强对流天气发生区域与山东高温分布吻合较好,高的温度准备了能量条件。(3)山东上空大气层结强不稳定,潜在不稳定能量高。有充沛的水汽条件和能量来源,大气可降水量高。近地面层有辐合切变线、泰山山地地形和阵风锋等多种触发强对流天气的条件。环境条件有利于强对流天气发生。(4)脉冲强风暴发展快,预警时间短。灾害性天气主要是由下击暴流和阵风锋直接导致的,灾害天气特点与中层干冷空气卷入有关。融化层高度高,导致冰雹粒子在下落过程中融化很少到达地面,是本次强风暴过程冰雹弱及出现少的重要原因。(5)中尺度模式CMA-MESO产品在本次过程中表现好,参考价值大。今后需加强中尺度模式预报产品的释用和短临时段的多普勒产品监测预警。

    Abstract:

    A rare extensive pulse storm event that occurred under weak wind shear during July 7, 2025 in Shandong Province is analyzed by using multi-source data. The results are as follows: (1) The synoptic environment characterized by a "trumpet-shaped" configuration, dry and cold at upper level and warm and moisture in lower level, has provided favorable conditions for the event whose synoptic situation belongs to subtropical high edge type . (2) The areas affected by the severe convective are highly consistent with the distribution of high temperature in Shandong, so the high temperature has laid the necessary energy for the event. (3) The stratification over Shandong is highly unstable, with abundant latent unstable energy. Sufficient water vapor and energy sources are present, and precipitable water is high. Multiple triggering factors for severe convective weather,such as convergent shear lines, the topographic effect of Mountain Tai, and gust fronts in the near-surface layer. The environmental conditions for severe convection are favorable. (4) Pulse severe storms are developed rapidly with a short lead time for early warnings. The hazardous weather is directly caused by downbursts and gust fronts, and its characteristics are associated with the entrainment of dry and cold air in middle layer. The weak intensity and scarcity of hail observed in this event can be largely attributed to a high-altitude melting layer which resulted in the melting of hailstones during their downward trajectory.(5)The meso-scale model CMA-MESO exhibits excellent performance in simulating this process and holds high reference value. In the future, it should be made to strengthen interpretation and application of meso-scale products, and to improve monitoring and early warning capabilities for short-term and nowcasting ?by utilizing Doppler radar products.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-09-12
  • 最后修改日期:2025-11-17
  • 录用日期:2025-11-24
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