面向巨灾保险的相似台风智能检索算法研究
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1.中国再保险(集团)股份有限公司博士后科研工作站;2.天津大学智能与计算学部;3.中再巨灾风险管理股份有限公司;4.中国气象科学研究院

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国家重点研发计划“台风、洪涝巨灾链主要承灾体保险关键技术与标准研究及应用示范”(2023YFC3008500)


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Research on intelligent retrieval algorithm for similar typhoon cases in catastrophe insurance
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1.China Reinsurance Group Corporation,Postdoctoral Research Station;2.China Re Catastrophe Risk Management Corporation;3.Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences

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    摘要:

    相似台风检索作为当下保险业引入的台风灾害风险减量关键技术,在保险业务的核心关键环节—灾损评估领域存在明显短板,针对这一行业痛点,本文综合考虑保险行业实际数据情况,构建适配保险实务的相似台风检索人工智能算法:即基于台风多维特征构建智能检索算法体系,实现分钟级动态检索;其次融合包含十万年台风随机事件集构建的保险行业专属检索库,显著提升检索覆盖范围。经实验验证,本研究所提出的算法响应时间可达到分钟级别,基于多组代表性台风最佳路径进行目标检索所得保险损失评估值,与实际保险损失偏差≤5%(Top1)。在处理具有不确定性的台风预报情境时,针对不同预报阶段开展动态检索,所得保险损失估算相对误差≤25%(Top1),能够有效包络真实保险损失范围,从而降低台风灾害背景下保险行业灾损预估过程中的不确定性。研究表明,本文提出的面向巨灾保险的智能检索算法在效率、精度和实用性方面均达到行业应用标准,为台风灾害风险管理提供了创新解决方案。

    Abstract:

    As a key technology for typhoon disaster risk mitigation introduced by the insurance industry at present, similar typhoon retrieval has obvious shortcomings in the core link of insurance business-disaster loss assessment. To address this industry pain point, this study comprehensively considers the actual data situation of the insurance industry and constructs an artificial intelligence algorithm for similar typhoon retrieval suitable for insurance practice: Specifically, an intelligent retrieval algorithm system is built based on the multi-dimensional characteristics of typhoons to achieve minute-level dynamic retrieval; furthermore, it integrates an insurance industry-specific retrieval database constructed with a 100,000-year typhoon random event set, significantly expanding the retrieval coverage. Experimental verification shows that the response time of the proposed algorithm reaches the minute level. The insurance loss assessment value obtained by target retrieval based on the optimal paths of multiple sets of representative typhoons has a deviation of ≤ 5% (Top1) from the actual insurance loss. When dealing with typhoon forecasting scenarios with uncertainties, dynamic retrieval is conducted for different forecasting stages, and the relative error of the estimated insurance loss is ≤ 25% (Top1), which can effectively envelop the range of actual insurance losses, thereby reducing the uncertainty in the insurance industry's disaster loss prediction process under the background of typhoon disasters. The research indicates that the intelligent retrieval algorithm proposed in this study for catastrophe insurance meets the industry application standards in terms of efficiency, accuracy, and practicality, and provides an innovative solution for typhoon disaster risk management.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-09-17
  • 最后修改日期:2026-01-22
  • 录用日期:2026-01-22
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