山东汛期短历时分钟降水时空分布和变化特征(暴雨专题)
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山东省气候中心

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山东省气象局科研项目(2023SDBD02);环渤海区域科技协同创新(QYXM202206)


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Spatio-temporal distribution and variation characteristics of short-duration minute-scale precipitation during the flood season in shandong
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1.Key laboratory for Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Shandong

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    摘要:

    为提升对山东分钟级降水变化规律的深入认识以及提高短时强降水预报和气象灾害预警能力,基于山东2004—2024年汛期6—9月122站逐分钟降水观测数据,对山东分钟降水和1、5、10、20、30、60分钟短历时强降水的时空分布和变化特征进行了分析。结果表明:山东汛期平均分钟降水频率呈明显的东南多、西北少的空间分布特征,平均分钟降水量在枣庄和临沂南部、济宁东部、德州北部、滨州西部等地区较大。分钟降水频率整体呈逐年波动减少趋势,分钟降水量显著增加趋势。山东降水主要出现在7月和8月,01—08时是平均分钟降水频率的多发时段,13时—翌日01时为分钟降水量较大时段。鲁西北,潍坊北部,临沂、日照、青岛、烟台等部分地区是分钟降水频率增加最明显的区域,聊城西部、枣庄和临沂西部、滨州、东营、潍坊中西部等地是分钟降水量增加最明显地区。1~60分钟短历时最大降水量以聊城、济南、滨州、潍坊西北部、枣庄和临沂南部、青岛南部、烟台西部和南部一带最大。各历时最大降水量在潍坊、日照北部、滨州北部、东营等地增加趋势最明显。各历时历年平均最大降水量在临沂南部、济宁和泰安中部、济南西南部、德州北部和滨州西部一带最大。各历时强降水相对阈值大值区和平均分钟降水量空间分布类似。1~60分钟短历时强降水相对阈值标准分别为1.1mm、3.5mm、5.7mm、9.3mm、12.3mm、19.3mm。

    Abstract:

    To enhance the understanding of minute-scale precipitation variations in Shandong and improve the forecasting of short-duration heavy rainfall and meteorological disaster warnings, this study analyzed the spatio-temporal distribution and variation characteristics of minute-scale precipitation and short-duration heavy rainfall (1, 5, 10, 20, 30, and 60 minutes) during the flood season (June to September) from 2004 to 2024, based on minute-level precipitation observation data from 122 stations in Shandong. The results indicated that the average minute-scale precipitation frequency during the flood season exhibited a distinct spatial pattern of higher values in the southeast and lower values in the northwest. The average minute-scale precipitation amount was relatively high in areas such as Zaozhuang, southern Linyi, eastern Jining, northern Dezhou, and western Binzhou. Overall, the minute-scale precipitation frequency showed a fluctuating decreasing trend year by year, while the minute-scale precipitation amount demonstrated a significant increasing trend. Precipitation in Shandong primarily occurred in July and August. The period from 01:00 to 08:00 Local Standard Time (LST) was associated with higher frequencies of minute-scale precipitation, whereas the period from 13:00 LST to 01:00 LST the next day was characterized by larger minute-scale precipitation amounts. The most pronounced increases in minute-scale precipitation frequency were observed in parts of northwestern Shandong, northern Weifang, and regions of Linyi, Rizhao, Qingdao, and Yantai. The most significant increases in minute-scale precipitation amount occurred in western Liaocheng, western Zaozhuang and Linyi, Binzhou, Dongying, and central-western Weifang. The maximum precipitation for short durations of 1–60 minutes was highest in areas including Liaocheng, Jinan, Binzhou, northwestern Weifang, southern Zaozhuang and Linyi, southern Qingdao, and western and southern Yantai. The increasing trend in maximum precipitation across various durations was most evident in Weifang, northern Rizhao, northern Binzhou, and Dongying. The multi-year average maximum precipitation for all durations was highest in southern Linyi, central Jining and Tai'an, southwestern Jinan, and northern Dezhou and western Binzhou. The spatial distribution of areas with high relative thresholds for heavy rainfall across various durations was similar to that of the average minute-scale precipitation amount. The relative threshold standards for short-duration heavy rainfall of 1–60 minutes in Shandong were 1.1 mm, 3.5 mm, 5.7 mm, 9.3 mm, 12.3 mm, and 19.3 mm, respectively.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-10-09
  • 最后修改日期:2025-11-29
  • 录用日期:2025-11-30
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