鲁中山区复杂地形作用下“7.22”极端暴雨特征及成因
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1.山东省气象台;2.济南市气象台

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山东省自然科学(ZR2023MD001);山东省气象局重点项目(2023sdqxz09);山东省气象局面上项目(2025sdqxm02);山东省气象局人才引进专项(2025sdrcyj04)


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Characteristics and Causes of the "7.22" Extreme Rainstorm under the Influence of Complex Terrain in the Central Mountainous Region of Shandong Province
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Shandong Meteorological Observatory

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    摘要:

    基于高分辨率多源观测资料,对2025年7月21—22日鲁中山区复杂地形影响下一次极端暴雨过程(以下简称“7·22”暴雨)特征及成因进行了分析。结果表明,“7·22”暴雨受副热带高压、远距离台风和低层切变线共同影响,形成了一次长历时、高强度极端降水事件。日降水量超过100 mm的区域主要沿山脉分布,而大于250 mm的降水中心位于山脉南部的喇叭口地形内侧,复杂下垫面环境和较为集中的强降雨时段导致鲁中山区出现致灾暴雨。分析显示,充沛的水汽供应是本次极端暴雨发生的重要条件,副热带高压与台风“韦帕”之间形成水汽输送通道,致使鲁中山区整层大气可降水量较气候态呈现中等偏强正异常。假相当位温和水汽通量散度分布呈地形相关特征,越山气流受地形强迫抬升,激发局地中尺度对流,系统性降水与局地对流性降水在近山一带叠加。雷达资料分析表明,山脉南侧的低空急流经历了一次显著增强过程,偏南风急流中不断有新生对流单体发展并逐渐并入主雨带;受地形阻挡作用,中尺度对流系统(MCS)长时间维持,若干中尺度涡旋连续经过山前喇叭口区域,造成持续的低层辐合并增强上升运动;涡旋所经区域与强降水回波区高度重合,形成列车效应,导致莱芜石云山站3 h累积雨量高达268.1 mm。本研究进一步深化了对鲁中复杂地形条件下极端降水的科学认识,可为相关区域暴雨预报预警提供参考依据。

    Abstract:

    Based on high-resolution multi-source observations, this study examines the characteristics and causes of the extreme rainstorm event that occurred on 21–22 July 2025 over the complex terrain of the Central Shandong Mountainous Region. The "7·22" rainstorm was a long-duration, high-intensity precipitation event driven by the combined influence of the subtropical high, a remote typhoon, and a low-level shear line. Daily precipitation exceeding 100 mm was concentrated along the mountains, with a core area of more than 250 mm located inside a horn-shaped topographic zone on the southern flank of the range. The complex underlying surface and the concentrated nature of the heavy rainfall contributed to the severe flooding in the region. Analysis indicated that abundant moisture supply was a critical condition for this extreme rainstorm event. A moisture transport channel formed between the subtropical high and Typhoon "Wipha" resulted in a moderately stronger positive anomaly in the total atmospheric precipitable water over the central Shandong mountainous area compared to the climatic norm. Areas of high pseudo-equivalent potential temperature and moisture flux divergence were distributed along the mountain range. The mountain-crossing airflow was forced to uplift by the terrain, triggering local mesoscale convection. Systematic precipitation and local convective precipitation overlapped in the near-mountain areas. Radar data revealed a strengthening low-level jet on the mountains’ southern side, where convective cells repeatedly formed and merged into the main rainband. Topographic blocking sustained a mesoscale convective system (MCS), while successive mesoscale vortices moving through the horn-shaped area enhanced low-level convergence and uplift. Overlap of vortex tracks with heavy rainfall echoes produced a train effect, yielding a 3-hour accumulation of 268.1?mm at Shiyunshan Station in Laiwu. This study advances the understanding of complex terrain effects on extreme rainstorms and offers valuable insights for future forecasting and risk management.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-10-14
  • 最后修改日期:2026-01-13
  • 录用日期:2026-01-15
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