ENSO不同位相下影响山东热带气旋极端降水的关键环流因子分析
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1.海洋动力环境观测与预报重点实验室和中国科学院海洋研究所海洋环流与波动实验室,山东青岛,266071;2.山东省气象台;3.中国海洋大学海洋动力-物理环境与智能感知全国重点实验室/海洋与大气学院,山东青岛,266100

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山东省自然科学基金重大基础研究项目(ZR2019ZD12)


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Key Circulation Factors Favoring Extreme Precipitation Induced by Tropical Cyclones Affecting Shandong under Different ENSO Phases
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Shandong Natural Science Foundation Project (ZR2019ZD12)

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    摘要:

    热带气旋(TC)是造成山东极端降水的一种重要天气系统,厘清山东TC极端降水的形成机理有助于防灾减灾。本文利用中国气象局上海台风研究所提供的1961—2020年最佳路径数据和山东79个气象台站的日降水观测资料,探究了厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)不同位相背景下TC北上影响山东造成极端降水的关键因子和影响机制。结果表明:TC能否在山东引起极端降水的关键因子在ENSO不同位相下存在显著差异。在El Ni?o发展年,印度夏季风加强对TC极端降水有重要作用。夏季向北传播的季节内振荡活跃有利于强的印度夏季风与西太平洋北上的TC相配合,将南海、孟加拉湾充沛的水汽源源不断输送至山东;同时,山东位于西南低空急流左侧和高空西风急流入口区的右侧,这种高低空急流配置的动力作用,有利于产生强烈的上升运动,进而造成山东极端降水。在La Ni?a发展年,西太平洋副热带高压的发展与山东TC极端降水有着更为密切的联系。前期巴伦支海-喀拉海上空异常高压波源激发的向东亚中纬度传播的大气遥相关波列导致西太平洋副热带高压西伸北抬,进而引导TC将太平洋上的水汽源源不断地送至山东,为极端降水提供有利的水汽条件。

    Abstract:

    An important synoptic system responsible for extreme precipitation in Shandong (EPS) is tropical cyclones (TCs). Enhancing the understanding of the formation mechanisms of TC-induced extreme precipitation is of great significance for disaster prevention and mitigation. This study employs the 1961–2020 best-track data provided by the Shanghai Typhoon Institute of the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and daily precipitation data from 79 meteorological stations in Shandong during the same period to investigate the key factors and impact mechanisms of EPS caused by northward-moving TCs under different phases of the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The results indicate that the key factors determining whether TCs can trigger EPS exhibit significant differences across different ENSO phases. In El Ni?o developing years, the intensified Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) plays a crucial role in TC-induced EPS events. The active northward-propagating intraseasonal oscillation leads to the coordination between the strong ISM and northward-moving TCs over the western North Pacific, which continuously transports abundant water vapor from the South China Sea and the Bay of Bengal to Shandong. Meanwhile, Shandong is located on the left side of the southwest low-level jet and the right side of the entrance region of the upper-level westerly jet. The dynamic effect of this vertical jet configuration favors the generation of intense ascending motion, thereby causing EPS events. In La Ni?a developing years, the western North Pacific Subtropical High (WNPSH) exhibits a closer association with TC-induced EPS. The anomalous wave source over the Barents-Kara Seas in the preceding period excites a wave train propagating eastward to the mid-latitudes of East Asia, resulting in the westward extension and northward shift of the WNPSH. The WNPSH change steers the TC continuously transport abundant water vapor from the Pacific Ocean to Shandong, providing favorable moisture conditions for extreme precipitation.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-10-17
  • 最后修改日期:2026-03-05
  • 录用日期:2026-03-08
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