河南低温雨雪冰冻气候特征和温度预报指标研究
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1.中国气象局河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点开放实验室;2.部队 河南 三门峡

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Statistical Features of Low-Temperature Ice-Snow Events in Henan Province
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1.Henan Key Laboratory of Agrometeorological Support and Applied Technique,China Meteorological Administration;2.Unit

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    摘要:

    利用河南省国家气象站1991—2020年历年11月至次年3月逐日观测资料,对单站及区域低温雨雪冰冻日进行普查,采用数理统计和天气学分析方法,统计分析了河南省低温雨雪冰冻日时空分布特征,对产生低温雨雪冰冻的大尺度环流进行了分型并凝练了预报指标。结果表明:历年低温雨雪冰冻发生站次整体呈不显著下降趋势;年均882.4站次,2001年发生站次最多、2007年最少;月均176.5站次,1月发生站次最多、3月最少;年际间和月际间差异均较大。单站低温雨雪冰冻最长持续日数集中在5~6 d,占比72.9%;西部山区发生频次多且持续日数长,东北部发生频次少且持续日数短,南阳盆地和商丘东部发生频次少但持续日数长。年均11个区域低温雨雪冰冻日,区域性低温雨雪冰冻过程持续日数集中在1~2 d、占比77.4%。低温雨雪冰冻日的500 hPa环流场可分为阻塞型与非阻塞型两大类,地面冷空气路径可划分为西路、西北路、中路和东路四类;同时,日最高气温≤5 ℃、日平均气温≤1.5 ℃、日最低气温与日最低地面温度≤0 ℃以及925~700 hPa温度≤0 ℃,可作为河南低温雨雪冰冻天气的预报指标。

    Abstract:

    Using the daily observation data from the national meteorological stations in Henan Province, spanning from November of each year to March of the following year, from 1991 to 2020, a comprehensive survey was conducted on single-station and regional occurrences of low temperature rainfall/snowfall and freezing (LTRSF) days. The temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of LTRSF days in Henan Province were statistically analyzed by mathematical statistics and synoptic analysis methods. Furthermore, the large-scale circulation patterns conducive to LTRSF were classified, and forecast indicators were established. The results show that: the number of stations with LTRSF in the past years showed an overall decreasing trend, but it was not significant. The average annual number of stations was 882.4, with the highest number of stations occurring in 2001 and the lowest in 2007. The cumulative monthly average number of stations was 5294.2, with the highest number of stations occurring in January and the lowest in March. The longest duration days of LTRSF in a single station were concentrated in 5~6 days, accounting for 72.9%. Stations located in the western mountainous regions experience more frequent and longer durations, while those in the eastern part of Puyang have fewer occurrences and shorter durations. Stations in the Nanyang Basin and the eastern part of Shangqiu experience fewer events but with longer durations. Regionally, an average of 11 LTRSF days occured annually, and the duration of these regional events was primarily concentrated between 1 and 2 days, accounting for 77.4% of all regional events. The daily minimum temperature and daily minimum ground temperature and 925~700hPa temperature ≤ 0 ℃ and T500 ≤ -12 ℃ can be used as the forecast indicators of LTRSF. The 500 hPa circulation field that generates LTRSF is categorized into two major types: blocked and non-blocked. The surface cold air path is categorized into four major types: west road, northwest road, middle road and east road, with the northwest type accounting for the most 48%, followed by the middle type accounting for 27%.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-11-12
  • 最后修改日期:2026-05-13
  • 录用日期:2026-05-19
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