季风爆发前后惠州前汛期短时强降水环境参量的前兆特征及其强度差异
DOI:
作者:
作者单位:

1.惠州市气象局;2.博罗县气象局;3.惠州市气象安全科技创新中心/粤港澳大湾区气象研究院

作者简介:

通讯作者:

中图分类号:

基金项目:

惠州市科技计划项目(2024CZ100304);广东省气象局科研项目(GRMC2025M74-Z);广东省气象局科研项目(GRMC2023Q02)


请扫码阅读

Precursor characteristics of environmental parameters and associated intensity differences of short-duration heavy rainfall during the pre-flood season in Huizhou before and after monsoon onset
Author:
Affiliation:

1.Huizhou Meteorological Bureau;2.Boluo Meteorological Bureau;3.Huizhou Innovation Center for Meteorological Safety/Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Academy of Meteorological Research

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 资源附件
  • |
  • 文章评论
    摘要:

    为明晰季风爆发前后惠州前汛期短时强降水的发生规律、提升其强度分级预报能力,利用2012—2024年惠州4—6月201个自动气象站逐时雨量资料和ERA5再分析数据,系统分析了近13 a季风爆发前锋面降水时期和季风爆发后夏季风降水时期短时强降水的时空特征,探讨了不同强度关键环境参量的前兆特征及其配置规律,初步得到强度分级指示指标。结果表明:(1)空间上,锋面降水时期短时强降水高发于北部山区,夏季风降水时期则呈现北部与南部沿海的双高发中心。两个时期平均降雨量高值均在南部沿海,而夏季风降水时期北部与南部沿海最大小时雨强的极端性特征更显著。(2)日变化上,锋面降水时期短时强降水高发于凌晨至清晨及上午至午后,而夏季风降水时期则为清晨至上午及午后至傍晚;最强降水峰值由锋面降水时期的午后转为夏季风降水时期的清晨。(3)短时强降水持续时间以1—2 h为主,夏季风降水时期2—3 h降水频次相对更高。(4)对流有效位能(convective available potential energy,CAPE)与850 hPa比湿(specific humidity at 850 hPa,q850)具有一定的强度分级指示意义。锋面降水时期极端短时强降水的CAPE和q850均高于普通短时强降水,其最有利CAPE约为普通的1.3倍;夏季风降水时期两类短时强降水的q850重叠度高且整体维持高值,极端短时强降水最有利CAPE约为普通的2倍。本文初步建立了不同时期短时强降水的强度分级指示指标,为惠州前汛期短时强降水精细化预报提供参考。

    Abstract:

    To clarify the occurrence patterns of short-duration heavy rainfall (SDHR) before and after the monsoon onset and to improve its intensity classification forecasting during the pre-flood season in Huizhou, this study uses hourly rainfall data from 201 automatic meteorological stations in Huizhou, covering the period from April to June over the recent 13 years (2012—2024), along with ERA5 reanalysis data. It systematically analyzes the spatio-temporal distribution of SDHR during two periods: the frontal rainfall period before monsoon onset and summer monsoon rainfall period after monsoon onset. Additionally, the precursor characteristics and favorable combinations of key environmental parameters for different SDHR intensities are investigated, leading to the preliminary establishment of reference indicators for intensity classification. Results show that: (1) Spatially, during the frontal rainfall period, SDHR occurs most frequently in the northern mountainous area, whereas during the summer monsoon rainfall period, it shows dual high-frequency centers in both the north and the southern coastal area. The highest average rainfall is observed in the southern coastal area in both periods. However, the most extreme hourly rainfall intensities occur in both the northern and southern coastal areas during the summer monsoon rainfall period. (2) In terms of diurnal variation, during the frontal rainfall period, SDHR peaks from midnight to early morning and from late morning to afternoon, with the most intense rainfall occurring in the afternoon. In the summer monsoon rainfall period, SDHR is concentrated from early morning to late morning and from afternoon to evening, with the highest intensity shifting to the early morning. (3) Most SDHR lasts 1—2 hours, with a relatively higher frequency of 2—3 hours during the summer monsoon rainfall period. (4) Convective available potential energy (CAPE) and specific humidity at 850 hPa (q850) are indicative for intensity classification. During the frontal rainfall period, extreme SDHR has higher CAPE and q850 than ordinary SDHR, with the optimal CAPE about 1.3 times that of ordinary SDHR. In the summer monsoon rainfall period, q850 remains consistently high with large overlap between intensity classes, while the optimal CAPE for extreme SDHR is approximately twice that of ordinary SDHR. This study preliminarily establishes intensity classification indicators for SDHR in different periods, providing a reference for refined SDHR forecasting during the pre-flood season in Huizhou.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文
分享
文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
  • HTML阅读次数:
  • 引用次数:
文章历史
  • 收稿日期:2025-11-13
  • 最后修改日期:2026-01-12
  • 录用日期:2026-01-12
  • 在线发布日期:
  • 出版日期: