泊松-皮尔逊Ⅲ型复合极值分布在热带气旋极值风速估算中的应用 ——以广东徐闻为例
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广东省气候中心

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P42

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广东省气象局科技项目(GRMC2024M53-Z、GRMC2024M17)


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Application of Poisson-Pearson Type Ⅲ Compound Extreme Value Distribution in Tropical Cyclone Extreme Wind Speed Estimation: A Case Study of Xuwen, Guangdong
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Guangdong Climate Center

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    摘要:

    热带气旋(TC)是影响我国华南沿海风电工程安全的关键致灾因子,其引发的极端风速远超常规设计标准,亟需构建适用于TC频发区的设计风速估算新方法。基于1949—2024年CMA-STI热带气旋最佳路径数据集,以广东徐闻为研究对象,采用Jelesnianski风场模型反演TC影响下的逐时最大风速,得到183个最大风速≥12.0 m/s的有效极值风速样本。在此基础上,新建泊松-皮尔逊Ⅲ型复合极值分布模型,对TC年发生频次与单次事件最大风速进行联合概率模拟。结果表明:徐闻地区受TC影响年均2.4次,主要集中在7—10月;50年一遇10 min设计风速为44.8 m?s-1,显著高于单一极值分布(如耿贝尔、广义极值)及泊松-耿贝尔复合极值分布的估算结果,且略高于现行《公路桥梁抗风设计规范》推荐值(43.6 m?s-1)。本研究通过全样本利用和更优尾部拟合,有效捕捉了TC极端风速的统计特征,为近海风电、桥梁等重大基础设施在TC高风险区的安全设计提供了可行的计算方法。

    Abstract:

    Tropical cyclones (TC) are a critical hazard threatening the safety of wind power infrastructure along China’s southern coastal regions, as they generate extreme wind speeds that far exceed conventional design standards. There is an urgent need to develop improved methods for estimating design wind speeds in TC-prone areas. Using the CMA-STI best-track tropical cyclone dataset from 1949 to 2024 and focusing on Xuwen, Guangdong Province, this study employs the Jelesnianski wind field model to reconstruct hourly maximum wind speeds induced by TCs, yielding 183 effective extreme wind speed samples with values ≥12.0 m?s?1. Building upon this dataset, a new Poisson–Pearson Type Ⅲ compound extreme value distribution model is developed to jointly simulate the annual TC occurrence frequency and the maximum wind speed associated with individual TC events. The results show that Xuwen experiences an average of 2.4 TC impacts per year, predominantly occurring from July to October. The 50-year return period 10-minute design wind speed is estimated at 44.8 m?s?1—significantly higher than estimates from single extreme value distributions (e.g., Gumbel, Generalized Extreme Value) and the Poisson–Gumbel compound model, and slightly exceeding the recommended value of 43.6 m?s?1 in the current Wind Resistance Design Specification for Highway Bridges. By fully utilizing the TC event sample and achieving superior tail fitting, the proposed method effectively captures the statistical characteristics of TC-induced extreme winds, offering a practical and robust approach for the safe design of offshore wind farms, long-span bridges, and other critical infrastructure in high-risk TC zones.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-12-09
  • 最后修改日期:2026-02-03
  • 录用日期:2026-02-03
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