1980~2023年北大西洋混合层温度时空特征分析
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1.成都信息工程大学大气科学学院;2.成都信息工程大学 大气科学学院

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国家自然科学基金项目(42275022)和四川省科技教育联合基金项目(2025NSFSC2005)


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Spatiotemporal Variability of Mixed Layer Temperature in the North Atlantic from 1980 to 2023
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School of Atmospheric Sciences,Chengdu University of Information Technology,Chengdu

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    摘要:

    基于1980~2023年GODAS海洋同化资料和ERA5再分析资料,采用EOF、Mann-Kendall突变检验和小波分析等方法,对近几十年来北大西洋混合层温度的时空变化特征及影响因子进行了分析。结果表明:1980~2023年期间,北大西洋混合层温度在空间上呈现显著的纬向分布特征,表现为自低纬度向中纬度递减的明显梯度。过去44年间,北大西洋热带和副热带地区混合层温度显著增暖,而西北部地区则出现局部降温。进一步分析发现,北大西洋混合层温度存在明显年际变化和年代际变化特征,其年代际尺度上表现出“升温~降温~升温”的演变特征。北大西洋混合层温度存在约28年的显著振荡周期,且在21世纪初发生了突变。在空间模态方面,春、夏、冬三季的第一模态主要表现为经典的经向三极子模态,而秋季则呈现为的副热带正异常与热带负异常相结合的空间分布型。环流分析表明,北大西洋上空的反气旋环流通过垂直耦合作用,一方面通过下沉运动减少云量、增强短波辐射的热力过程,另一方面通过其南侧偏东风场驱动Ekman输送的动力过程,共同塑造并维持了混合层温度“南暖北冷”的分布格局。

    Abstract:

    Based on ocean and atmospheric reanalysis data from GODAS and the ERA5 datasets, this study presents a comprehensive analysis of the spatiotemporal characteristics and influencing factors of North Atlantic mixed layer temperature from 1980 to 2023. Applying EOF, Mann-Kendall trend and mutation tests, and Morlet wavelet analysis, we identify the dominant modes of variability, detect significant regime shifts, and reveal the primary oscillatory periods governing the mixed layer temperature changes. The results indicate that during the period 1980-2023, the mixed layer temperature in the North Atlantic exhibited a significant zonal distribution pattern in space, characterized by a clear gradient decreasing from low latitudes to mid-latitudes. Over the past 44 years, the mixed layer temperature in the tropical and subtropical regions of the North Atlantic has significantly warmed, while the northwestern region has experienced localized cooling. Further analysis reveals that the mixed layer temperature in the North Atlantic exhibits clear interannual and decadal variation characteristics, with the decadal scale showing an evolution characteristic of "warming ~ cooling ~ warming". The mixed layer temperature has a significant oscillation period of about 28 years and underwent a mutation in the early 21st century. In terms of spatial modes, the first mode in spring, summer, and winter primarily manifests as a classic meridional tripole mode, while in autumn it presents a spatial distribution pattern combining positive anomalies in the subtropics with negative anomalies in the tropics. Circulation analysis indicates that the anticyclonic circulation over the North Atlantic, through vertical coupling, on the one hand reduces cloud cover and enhances shortwave radiation through the thermodynamic process of subsidence, and on the other hand drives Ekman transport through the dynamic process of its southern flank easterly wind field, collectively shaping and maintaining the "warm-south-cold-north" distribution pattern of mixed layer temperature.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-12-11
  • 最后修改日期:2026-02-11
  • 录用日期:2026-02-11
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