中国1951-2024年登陆台风的时空变异
DOI:
作者:
作者单位:

作者简介:

通讯作者:

中图分类号:

基金项目:

浙江省气象局科技项目(2023YB17)


请扫码阅读

Spatiotemporal Variation of Landfalling Typhoons in China from 1951 to 2024
Author:
Affiliation:

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 资源附件
  • |
  • 文章评论
    摘要:

    中国位于欧亚大陆东部、太平洋西岸,是全球受台风灾害影响最严重的国家之一。基于1951—2024年热带气旋数据,综合运用线性回归、Morlet 小波分析、偏相关分析与地统计学方法,系统探究了中国登陆台风的时空演变特征。结果表明:(1)中国年均登陆台风数量为8.9个,1952年最多,2015年最少,呈下降趋势明显,二次登陆台风数量变化不大;华南地区登陆热带气旋频次明显下降,华东地区登陆台风频次占比略有上升。(2)台风登陆主要集中于6—9月,10月登陆频次呈上升趋势,增幅为0.1(10a?1);台风登陆地点主要集中在广东、海南和台湾三省,二次登陆次数最多的是福建省。(3)达到台风级以上强度的热带气旋共247个,约占登陆热带气旋总数的37.4%。研究结果揭示了我国登陆台风的最新演变规律,对提升灾害预报能力、优化防灾减灾策略具有重要的科学价值和现实意义。

    Abstract:

    China is situated in the eastern part of the Eurasian continent and on the western coast of the Pacific Ocean, making it one of the countries most severely affected by typhoon disasters globally. Based on tropical cyclone data from 1951 to 2024, this study systematically investigates the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of typhoons making landfall in China by integrating methods such as linear regression, Morlet wavelet analysis, partial correlation analysis, and geostatistical techniques. The results indicate: (1) The annual average number of typhoons making landfall in China is 8.9, with the highest frequency occurring in 1952 and the lowest in 2015, showing a significant decreasing trend. The number of typhoons making secondary landfalls remains relatively stable. The frequency of typhoons making landfall in South China has declined noticeably, while the proportion of landfalls in East China has slightly increased. (2) Typhoon landfalls are primarily concentrated between June and September, with an increasing trend observed in October, showing an increment of 0.1 per decade (0.1?10a?1). The main landing locations are concentrated in Guangdong, Hainan, and Taiwan provinces, while Fujian Province records the highest number of secondary landfalls. (3) A total of 247 tropical cyclones reached typhoon intensity or higher, accounting for approximately 37.4% of all landfalling tropical cyclones. The findings reveal the latest evolution patterns of typhoons making landfall in China, offering significant scientific value and practical implications for enhancing disaster forecasting capabilities and optimizing strategies for disaster prevention and mitigation.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文
分享
文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
  • HTML阅读次数:
  • 引用次数:
文章历史
  • 收稿日期:2025-12-12
  • 最后修改日期:2026-01-29
  • 录用日期:2026-01-29
  • 在线发布日期:
  • 出版日期: