“24·7”鲁南持续性暴雨与低空急流日变化的关系
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1.山东省气象防灾减灾重点实验室、山东省气象台;2.山东省气象台;3.山东省气象防灾减灾重点实验室

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山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2021MD010,ZR2023MD118);山东省气象局创新团队(SDCXTD2021-1,SDCXTD2023-1);山东省气象局科研项目(2024sdcxtd01,SDTQ2024-02,SDTQ2024-01,2024SDQN16,2022sdqxz11,2022sdqxm12,SDTQ2023-01,2023sdqxm09,2023sdqxm02)共同资助


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Relationship Between the “24·7” Persistent Torrential Rain in Southern Shandong and Diurnal Variation of the Low-Level Jet
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山东省气象防灾减灾重点实验室、山东省气象台

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    摘要:

    利用常规观测、ERA5再分析和GDAS轨迹追踪资料,对“24·7”鲁南特大暴雨过程进行了分析。主要结论如下:(1)雨带走向取决于700?hPa LLJ、850?hPa LLJ及925?hPa SLLJ前侧辐合区的空间配置:前两阶段各层辐合区呈东西向,雨带相应为东西走向;第三阶段冷空气入侵使辐合区转为南北向,雨带随之转向。夜间急流初始增强时,前两阶段925?hPa风速≥12?m·s?1北界对应降水南界,850?hPa风速≥12?m·s?1北界对应降水北界;第三阶段冷空气南下后,降水南界仍由925?hPa SLLJ界定,北界则与850?hPa LLJ顶端与切变线附近的辐合区重合。(2)降水强度日变化主要受850?hPa?LLJ及925?hPa?SLLJ辐合所主导,呈现同步的“夜间增强、下午减弱”特征,700 hPa LLJ则提供稳定辐合与水汽输送。相关性分析表明,区域平均降水率与各层急流强度均显著正相关,而区域最大降水率与850?hPa?LLJ及925?hPa?SLLJ关系最为密切。(3)水汽输送表现出与850?hPa?LLJ及925?hPa?SLLJ活动密切相关的日变化特征,850?hPa和925?hPa水汽通量强度的日变化与降水强度演变一致;700?hPa水汽通量持续为正,为暴雨维持提供稳定的水汽支持。(4)水汽来源呈现显著的阶段性差异:前两阶段水汽主要源自南海和孟加拉湾,经低层急流输送至鲁南辐合;第三阶段冷空气南下带来经渤海增湿的北方气团,与南海暖湿气流在鲁南交汇,形成“南北水汽交汇”格局,显著增强了水汽辐合强度,是第三阶段降水达峰值的关键条件。

    Abstract:

    This study analyzed the "24·7" extremely heavy rainfall event in southern Shandong using conventional observations, ERA5 reanalysis, and GDAS trajectory tracking data. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The orientation of the rain belt is determined by the spatial configuration of the convergence zones ahead of the 700?hPa LLJ, 850?hPa LLJ, and 925?hPa SLLJ. During the first two stages, the convergence zones at various levels were oriented east-west, resulting in an east-west oriented rain belt. In the third stage, the intrusion of cold air shifted the convergence zone to a north-south orientation, causing a corresponding shift in the rain belt. During the initial nocturnal intensification of the jets, the northern boundary of the 925?hPa wind speed ≥12?m·s?1 corresponded to the southern boundary of the precipitation, while the northern boundary of the 850?hPa wind speed ≥12?m·s?1 corresponded to the northern boundary in the first two stages. After the southward advance of cold air in the third stage, the southern precipitation boundary was still defined by the 925?hPa SLLJ, whereas the northern boundary coincided with the convergence zone between the tip of the 850?hPa LLJ and near the shear line. (2) The diurnal variation in precipitation intensity was primarily dominated by the convergence associated with the 850?hPa LLJ and the 925?hPa SLLJ, exhibiting synchronous characteristics with "nocturnal enhancement and afternoon weakening". The 700?hPa LLJ provided steady convergence and moisture transport. Correlation analysis indicates that the regional average precipitation rate was significantly positively correlated with the intensity of jets at all levels, while the regional maximum precipitation rate was most closely related to the intensities of the 850?hPa LLJ and the 925?hPa SLLJ. (3) Moisture transport exhibited diurnal variations closely linked to the activity of the 850?hPa LLJ and 925?hPa SLLJ, with the diurnal variation in water vapor flux intensity at 850?hPa and 925?hPa aligning well with the evolution of precipitation intensity. The water vapor flux at 700?hPa remained consistently positive, providing stable moisture support for the maintenance of the torrential rain. (4) The moisture sources showed significant stage-dependent differences. In the first two stages, moisture was primarily sourced from the South China Sea and the Bay of Bengal, transported to southern Shandong by low-level jets for convergence. In the third stage, the southward intrusion of cold air brought a northern air mass, which had been moisturized over the Bohai Sea. This air mass converged with the warm, moist air from the South China Sea over southern Shandong, forming a "north-south moisture convergence" pattern. This significantly enhanced the intensity of moisture convergence and was a key condition for the precipitation to reach its peak during the third stage.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-12-18
  • 最后修改日期:2026-03-08
  • 录用日期:2026-03-08
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