2024年“8·26”黄河气旋暴雨过程降水阶段性差异的水汽特征对比与成因分析
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1.山东省气象台;2.南京大学大气科学学院

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P434

基金项目:

山东省自然基金(ZR2023MD001);山东省气象局人才引进专项(2024sdrcyj02)


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The Evolution and Mechanism of Moisture Configuration Associated with Abrupt Changes in Precipitation Characteristics during a Yellow River Cyclone–Induced Heavy Rainfall Event on 26 August 2024
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Affiliation:

1.Shandong Meteorological Observatory;2.Key Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather/Ministry of Education and School of Atmospheric Sciences,Nanjing University

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    摘要:

    2024年8月25—27日,受黄河气旋影响,京津冀地区至山东出现暴雨,山东多站点小时及日降水量突破历史极值。该过程中在时间连续、天气尺度强迫相似的两阶段具有显著不同的降水特征:第一阶段降水覆盖京津冀广大平原,范围广、强度中等;第二阶段降水局限于鲁西北沿海地区,强度大、极端性强。基于ERA5再分析资料、地面加密自动气象站观测数据和HYSPLIT水汽轨迹追踪模式,结合欧拉与拉格朗日视角,系统对比两阶段水汽特征差异并分析其成因。结果表明:(1)两阶段水汽均源自北部湾和台湾海峡,其中第二阶段由台湾海峡沿东部海区北上的水汽轨迹数量显著增多。(2)两阶段水汽通量及辐合结构差异主要受低层环流配置与干侵入强度调控。第一阶段,气旋东南侧西南低空急流驱动降水区南边界存在持续的强经向水汽输送,配合大范围水汽通量辐合,促成广域性降水;第二阶段,降水区东边界水汽通量成为主导来源,气旋北侧低层东风显著增强,导致渤海湾暖湿空气自东向西快速平流至降水区。(3)气旋西北部干侵入于第二阶段加强,导致高层干冷空气沿等熵面向南、向下侵入气旋,抑制气旋西部和北部水汽辐合,迫使低层南风水汽输送被限制于气旋东部狭窄区域,形成强局地水汽辐合区,为极端降水爆发提供有利条件。本研究揭示了经典水汽来源框架下,环流调整通过水汽通道重组与干侵入协同作用,可显著调节降水存在阶段性分布和强度特征,丰富了对黄河气旋暴雨水汽组织多样性的认识。

    Abstract:

    From 25 to 27 August 2024, a Yellow River cyclone induced extreme rainfall stretching from the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region to Shandong Province, with numerous stations in Shandong breaking historical records for both hourly and daily precipitation. Despite temporal continuity and similar synoptic-scale forcing, the event unfolded in two distinct phases with contrasting precipitation characteristics: Phase I featured widespread, moderate-intensity rainfall across the extensive plains of the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region, whereas Phase II produced intense, highly localized extreme rainfall confined to the northwestern coastal area of Shandong. Leveraging ERA5 reanalysis data, high-density surface automatic weather station observations, and HYSPLIT moisture trajectory analyses, this study systematically compares the moisture transport features between the two phases and investigates their underlying mechanisms from both Eulerian and Lagrangian perspectives. The results show that: (1) Moisture during both phases originated primarily from the Beibu Gulf and the Taiwan Strait, with a significant increase in the number of moisture trajectories ascending from the Taiwan Strait and propagating northward along the eastern coastal waters during Phase II. (2) Differences in low-level circulation patterns and the intensity of dry air intrusion governed the contrasting moisture flux and convergence structures. In Phase I, a strong southwesterly low-level jet on the southeastern flank of the cyclone sustained persistent meridional moisture transport into the southern boundary of the rainband, coinciding with broad-scale moisture flux convergence and facilitating widespread precipitation. In Phase II, moisture influx shifted to the eastern edge of the rainband, where markedly enhanced low-level easterlies north of the cyclone rapidly advected warm, moist air from the Bohai Sea westward into the precipitation core. (3) Dry intrusion intensified over the cyclone’s northwestern flank during Phase II, driving upper-level dry, cold air to descend isentropically southward and downward into the cyclone’s northern sector. This suppressed moisture convergence over the western and northern regions, effectively confining low-level southerly moisture transport to a narrow zone east of the cyclone and establishing a localized, intense moisture convergence maximum—thereby creating the critical environment for the outbreak of extreme rainfall. This study demonstrates that, even under a common large-scale moisture source framework, synoptic-scale circulation adjustment—through the reconfiguration of moisture pathways and synergistic interaction with dry intrusion— is one of the reasons for abrupt transitions in precipitation characteristics, thereby providing new insights into the diverse modes of moisture organization in Huanghe River cyclone–related extreme rainfall.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-12-19
  • 最后修改日期:2026-03-06
  • 录用日期:2026-03-08
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