2306号台风“卡努”路径预报难点分析和改进思路探讨
作者:
作者单位:

国家气象中心,北京 100081

作者简介:

黄奕武,高级工程师,huangyiwu@cma.gov.cn。

通讯作者:

中图分类号:

P458.1+24

基金项目:

国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFB3907701);中国气象局复盘总结专项(FPZJ2024-162);国家自然科学基金项目(42175016)


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Analysis on challenges and improvement strategies in track forecasting of Typhoon Khanun (2306)
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National Meteorological Center, Beijing 100081 , China

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    摘要:

    2306号台风“卡努”在生命史中后期两次发生路径突变,对预报业务提出了巨大挑战。本文基于中央气象台预报数据、确定性预报数值模式及ERA5再分析资料,分析其路径突变的原因和预报偏差成因。结果表明:在第一次路径突变阶段,“卡努”南侧西南季风加强并且北抬,东侧西北太平洋副热带高压(以下简称“副高”)加强并延伸至“卡努”南侧,两者叠加形成深厚的西南风引导环境场,从而导致“卡努”路径突变(近海停滞然后西折);第二次路径突变的原因是“卡努”东侧副高再次加强并西伸,使得“卡努”先减速然后北折。首次路径突变前数值模式低估了副高核心区强度,导致南侧季风通道气压梯度偏小,风速偏弱,而“卡努”因移速偏快导致过早脱离了季风通道,从而导致“卡努”第一次路径突变预报的失败;第二次路径突变期间,模式对东北侧高空冷涡的强度预报偏强,抑制了副高西伸,使得预报路径转向失败。研究结果为台风路径主观预报启发了新的思路,即结合台风移速订正与引导流变化,同步订正台风移向,从而改进台风路径预报。

    Abstract:

    Typhoon Khanun (2306) undergoes two significant turning tracks in its mid-to-late life cycle, posing substantial challenges to operational forecasting. This study analyzes the causes of the two abrupt track changes and forecast deviations using the operational typhoon track data from National Meteorological Center, numerical models output and ERA5 reanalysis data. The results are as follows. During the first abrupt track change, the southwest monsoon to the south of Typhoon Khanun intensifies and shifts northward, while the western North Pacific subtropical high to its east strengthens and extends to the south of the typhoon. The combination of these factors creates a deep southwesterly steering environmental field, leading to the abrupt track change of Typhoon Khanun (stagnation near the sea followed by a westward turn). The second abrupt track change occurs due to the re-intensification and westward extension of the subtropical high to the east of Typhoon Khanun, causing it to first decelerate and then turn northward. Prior to the first abrupt track change, numerical models underestimate the intensity of the subtropical high core, leading to weaker pressure gradient and thus weaker monsoon channel winds to the south, and the rapid movement of Typhoon Khanun causes a detachment from the monsoon channel, resulting in the failure of the forecast for the first abrupt track change. During the second abrupt track change, the models overestimate the intensity of an upper tropospheric cold low to the northeast of Typhoon Khanun, suppressing the subtropical high’s westward extension and inducing a failure of the forecast for the track change. The findings inspire a new approach for the subjective forecasting of typhoon tracks: by integrating the correction of typhoon’s moving speed with changes in the steering flow, the typhoon’s direction can be simultaneously adjusted and thus the track forecasts improve.

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黄奕武,董林,钱奇峰,吕心艳.2306号台风“卡努”路径预报难点分析和改进思路探讨[J].海洋气象学报,2026,46(1):64-74.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-08-22
  • 最后修改日期:2025-11-16
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-02-13
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