Abstract:Based on 122 national meteorological stations, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, soil moisture observation stations and agricultural data in Shandong Province, the spatial and temporal distribution, intensity difference, circulation characteristics and agricultural impact of autumn rain in 2021 and 2025 were compared and analyzed. The results show that : (1) The precipitation in Shandong in autumn of 2021 and 2025 is significantly more, but the characteristics of cloudy and rainy processes are significantly different. The average precipitation and precipitation days in the province from September 11 to October 20, 2025 were 317.8 mm and 23.2 d, respectively, ranking the first in the same period since 1961. In 2021, they were 208.1 mm and 16.1 d, respectively, ranking second in the same period. In 2025, the proportion of continuous rain stations is higher, the regional consistency is stronger, and the intensity index is 34.7% higher than that in 2021, indicating that its sustainability and cumulative impact are stronger than those in 2021. (2) The rainy processes in 2021 and 2025 occurred under the background of the stable maintenance of the " two ridges and one trough " circulation in the middle and high latitudes of Eurasia, the strong and northerly subtropical high in the western Pacific ( hereinafter referred to as the " subtropical high " ) and the enhanced warm and humid transport in the lower troposphere. Compared with 2021, the control range of the subtropical high in 2025 is larger, the ridge line is further north, the low-level convergence over Shandong is more obvious, and the water vapor transport and ascending motion conditions are better, which is an important reason for the longer duration and wider influence range of precipitation. (3) In 2021, the duration of farmland overwetting was short, and the yield of winter wheat in 2022 was not significantly affected due to sufficient heat compensation before winter. In 2025, the range of farmland overwetting is wider and the duration is longer. The progress of autumn harvest and autumn planting is significantly delayed compared with that in 2021. Late sowing leads to insufficient heat, and the seedling condition of wheat before winter is obviously weak, which increases the difficulty of later management and the uncertainty of stable yield.