2021年和2025年山东秋季阴雨气候环流特征及其对农业影响对比分析
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1.山东省气象防灾减灾重点实验室、山东省气候中心;2.山东省气象防灾减灾重点实验室、山东省东营市气象局

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山东省气象局科研项目(2025sdqxz03,2024SDQN03,2023SDBD15)


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Comparative Analysis of Climatic Circulation Characteristics and Agricultural Impacts of Autumn Rainy Weather in Shandong Province in 2021 and 2025
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1.Key Laboratory for Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Shandong、 Shandong Climate Center;2.Key Laboratory for Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Shandong、Dongying Meteorological Bureau of Shandong Province

Fund Project:

Scientific Research Project of Shandong Meteorological Bureau (2025SDQXZ03, 2024SDQN03, 2023SDBD15)

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    摘要:

    基于山东省122个国家气象站、NCEP/NCAR再分析资料、土壤水分观测站及农情数据,对比分析2021年与2025年秋季阴雨的时空分布、强度差异、环流特征及农业影响。结果表明:(1)2021年与2025年秋季山东降水均显著偏多,但阴雨过程特征差异明显。2025年9月11日—10月20日全省平均降水量和降水日数分别为317.8 mm和23.2 d,均居1961年以来同期第1位;2021年分别为208.1 mm和16.1 d,均居同期第2位。2025年连阴雨发生站点比例更高、区域一致性更强,强度指数较2021年偏高34.7%,表明其持续性和累积影响均强于2021年。(2)2021年和2025年阴雨过程均发生在欧亚中高纬“两脊一槽”型环流稳定维持、西太平洋副热带高压(以下简称“副高”)偏强偏北及低层暖湿输送增强的背景下。与2021年相比,2025年副高控制范围更大、脊线更北,山东上空低层辐合更明显,水汽输送和上升运动条件更优,是其降水持续时间更长、影响范围更广的重要原因。(3)2021年农田过湿持续时间较短,因冬前热量补偿充分,2022年冬小麦产量未受明显影响;2025年农田过湿范围更广、持续时间长,秋收秋种进度较2021年显著推迟,晚播导致热量不足,小麦冬前苗情明显偏弱,增加了后期管理难度和稳产不确定性。

    Abstract:

    Based on 122 national meteorological stations, NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, soil moisture observation stations and agricultural data in Shandong Province, the spatial and temporal distribution, intensity difference, circulation characteristics and agricultural impact of autumn rain in 2021 and 2025 were compared and analyzed. The results show that : (1) The precipitation in Shandong in autumn of 2021 and 2025 is significantly more, but the characteristics of cloudy and rainy processes are significantly different. The average precipitation and precipitation days in the province from September 11 to October 20, 2025 were 317.8 mm and 23.2 d, respectively, ranking the first in the same period since 1961. In 2021, they were 208.1 mm and 16.1 d, respectively, ranking second in the same period. In 2025, the proportion of continuous rain stations is higher, the regional consistency is stronger, and the intensity index is 34.7% higher than that in 2021, indicating that its sustainability and cumulative impact are stronger than those in 2021. (2) The rainy processes in 2021 and 2025 occurred under the background of the stable maintenance of the " two ridges and one trough " circulation in the middle and high latitudes of Eurasia, the strong and northerly subtropical high in the western Pacific ( hereinafter referred to as the " subtropical high " ) and the enhanced warm and humid transport in the lower troposphere. Compared with 2021, the control range of the subtropical high in 2025 is larger, the ridge line is further north, the low-level convergence over Shandong is more obvious, and the water vapor transport and ascending motion conditions are better, which is an important reason for the longer duration and wider influence range of precipitation. (3) In 2021, the duration of farmland overwetting was short, and the yield of winter wheat in 2022 was not significantly affected due to sufficient heat compensation before winter. In 2025, the range of farmland overwetting is wider and the duration is longer. The progress of autumn harvest and autumn planting is significantly delayed compared with that in 2021. Late sowing leads to insufficient heat, and the seedling condition of wheat before winter is obviously weak, which increases the difficulty of later management and the uncertainty of stable yield.

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  • 收稿日期:2026-01-06
  • 最后修改日期:2026-05-28
  • 录用日期:2026-05-28
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