利用漂浮式测风激光雷达评估台风期间ERA5 80-200米风场资料的可用性
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1.青岛华航环境科技有限责任公司;2.浙江华东岩土勘察设计研究院有限公司

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中国长江三峡集团有限公司科研项目(202003025)


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Evaluation of the applicability of ERA5 80–200 m wind field data during typhoons using floating wind lidar
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1.Qingdao Huahang Seaglet Environmental Technology Ltd;2.Zhejiang Huadong Geotechnical Investigation and Design Institute Co,Ltd;3.Shanghai Investigation,Design Research Institute Co,Ltd

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    摘要:

    利用2025年台风季南海北部(含北部湾海域)3套漂浮式测风激光雷达观测数据,针对“剑鱼”“桦加沙”和“麦德姆”三次台风活动评估了第五代全球气候和天气再分析资料(ERA5)再分析资料在80 m、120 m、160 m和200 m等4个与风能资源评估及机组载荷计算密切相关的高度层。通过ERA5位势高度场确定等压面实际海拔,结合幂律风廓线模型进行时空匹配与高度订正后开展定量比对。结果表明:ERA5能较好再现台风风速演变趋势,与观测的风速相关系数普遍高于0.84,均方根误差(RMSE)为1.4~4.3m·s?1;但对峰值风速存在系统性低估,尤其在风速超过20m·s-1的极端情况下,低估幅度可达1~4m·s-1。风向的比对精度整体低于风速,在快速转变阶段误差显著。垂直分布上,风速RMSE随高度增加呈递减趋势,200?m高度表现小于80?m。本研究揭示,ERA5虽能反映台风风场演变趋势,但其系统性偏差会增加海上风电机组载荷计算与功率预测及台风风险精准评估中的不确定性,需结合实测数据开展偏差订正后使用。

    Abstract:

    Using observational data from three floating wind lidar systems deployed in the northern South China Sea (including the Beibu Gulf) during the 2025 typhoon season, this study evaluates the fifth-generation global climate and weather reanalysis dataset (ERA5) reanalysis wind fields at four height levels—80 m, 120 m, 160 m, and 200 m—which are closely related to wind energy resource assessment and turbine load calculation, for three typhoon events: “Kajiki,” “Ragasa,” and “Matmo”. The actual altitude of pressure levels is determined from the ERA5 geopotential height field, and spatiotemporal matching and height adjustment are performed using the power law wind profile model prior to quantitative comparison. The results indicate that ERA5 effectively reproduces the evolution trends of typhoon wind fields, with correlation coefficients generally exceeding 0.84 and root mean square errors (RMSE) ranging from 1.4 to 4.3 m·s?1.However, a systematic underestimation of peak wind speeds exists, especially under extreme conditions where wind speeds exceed 20 m·s?1, with underestimations reaching 1–4 m·s?1.The accuracy for wind direction is generally lower than that for wind speed, with significant errors during periods of rapid directional shifts. Regarding vertical distribution, the RMSE of wind speed decreases with increasing height, with the 200 m level exhibiting smaller errors than the 80 m level. This study reveals that while ERA5 can capture the evolution of typhoon wind fields, its systematic biases introduce uncertainties in offshore wind turbine load calculation, power forecasting, and precise typhoon risk assessment. Therefore, bias correction based on observational data is recommended prior to its application in such contexts.

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  • 收稿日期:2026-01-21
  • 最后修改日期:2026-04-07
  • 录用日期:2026-04-08
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