山东历史上两次极端台风暴雨的对比分析
作者:
作者单位:

1.潍坊市气象局,山东 潍坊 261011 ;2.山东省气象防灾减灾重点实验室,山东 济南 250031 ;3.中国气象局上海台风研究所,上海 200030 ;4.山东省气象数据中心,山东 济南 250031

作者简介:

第一作者:高晓梅,正高级工程师,wfmeizi@126.com。
通信作者:盛春岩,正高级工程师,sdqxscy@126.com。

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基金项目:

山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2023MD118,ZR2021MD010,ZR2020MD055);山东省气象局重点项目(2024sdqxz10,2023sdqxz11);中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2023J015);华东区域气象科技协同创新基金项目(QYHZ201812);山东台风与海洋气象创新团队项目(SDCXTD2021-2)


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Comparative analysis on two extreme rainstorms caused by typhoons in Shandong’s history
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Affiliation:

1.Weifang Meteorological Service, Weifang 261011 , China ; 2.Key Laboratory for Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Shandong, Jinan 250031 , China ; 3.Shanghai Typhoon Institute, CMA, Shanghai 200030 , China ;4.Shandong Meteorological Data Center, Jinan 250031 , China

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    摘要:

    台风“利奇马”和“温比亚”是对山东致灾严重的2个热带气旋。利用多源观测资料及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,对引发山东有气象记录以来的两次极端台风暴雨过程进行对比分析。结果表明:(1)两次过程均为台风与西风槽相互作用引发的极端强降雨,但“利奇马”期间西风槽与台风直接结合,加之更厚的暖云层、更强的水汽通量及其辐合,导致降水更为剧烈。(2)两次过程均存在近乎垂直的θse能量锋区和锋面次级环流,“利奇马”具有更高的θse值、更宽厚的能量锋区及接近“温比亚”2倍的垂直上升速度,地形对两次台风暴雨有显著增幅作用。(3)垂直螺旋度大值区与高温高湿能量锋区耦合共同促进强上升运动,其中心强度对未来6 h降雨量有指示意义,正垂直螺旋度中心下移可预示降水减弱,“利奇马”期间垂直螺旋度最大值可达“温比亚”的5倍。(4)风廓线雷达探测的垂直速度v≥2 m·s-1可作为两次台风过程判别降水的阈值,强降水时垂直速度普遍超过8 m·s-1,“利奇马”的垂直速度强度更大。

    Abstract:

    Typhoon Lekima and Typhoon Rumbia are two tropical cyclones that caused severe disasters in Shandong. Based on multi-source observations and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the two typhoon-induced extreme rainstorms in Shandong since the meteorological records began are compared and analyzed. The results are as follows. (1) Both processes are triggered by the interaction between typhoons and westerly troughs, resulting in extremely heavy precipitation. However, during Typhoon Lekima, the direct coupling of the westerly trough with the typhoon, combined with thicker warm cloud layers, stronger water vapor flux and its convergence, results in more intense precipitation. (2) Both typhoon rainstorms exhibit nearly vertical frontal zones of θse energy and secondary circulation systems associated with fronts. Typhoon Lekima features larger θse values, broader and thicker frontal zones of energy and nearly twice the vertical ascent velocity of Typhoon Rumbia. The topography significantly amplifies the two typhoon rainstorms. (3) The coupling between the larger vertical helicity and the frontal zones with higher temperature and humidity jointly promotes strong updrafts, and the intensity of the center is indicative for the future 6-h precipitation. The downward shift of the center of positive vertical helicity may indicate the weakening of precipitation. The maximum vertical helicity during Lekima reaches 5 times higher than Rumbia. (4) The vertical velocity of wind profiler radars v≥2 m·s-1 can serve as a threshold for precipitation during the two typhoon processes. Vertical velocities commonly exceed 8 m·s-1 during heavy precipitation, while Typhoon Lekima exhibits greater vertical velocity.

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高晓梅,白莉娜,郭蓉,等.山东历史上两次极端台风暴雨的对比分析[J].海洋气象学报,2026,46(2):26-38.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-09-10
  • 最后修改日期:2025-11-15
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-04-22
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