冀鲁地区一次飑线过程的维持机制与强降水成因分析
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作者单位:

1.中国海洋大学海洋与大气学院,山东 青岛 266100 ;2.华东区域相控阵天气雷达应用联合实验室,上海 200030 ;3.青岛市气象局,山东 青岛 266003 ;4.河南省人工影响天气中心,河南 郑州 450003 ;5.太原卫星发射中心,山西 太原 030002

作者简介:

第一作者:赵千惠,硕士研究生,730249681@qq.com。
通信作者:万夫敬,正高级工程师,1005418392@qq.com。

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基金项目:

中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2024J033);山东省气象局创新团队项目(SDCXTD2023-1);青岛市气象局重点课题(2023qdqxz02);山东省气象局重点课题(2025sdqxz18);山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2025LQX005)


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Maintenance mechanisms of a severe squall line process and related causes of heavy precipitation in Hebei-Shandong region
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Affiliation:

1.College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100 , China ; 2.East China Phased Array Weather Radar Application Joint Laboratory, Shanghai 200030 , China ; 3.Qingdao Meteorological Service, Qingdao 266003 , China ; 4.Weather Modification Center of Henan Province, Zhengzhou 450003 , China ; 5.Taiyuan Satellite Launch Center, Taiyuan 030002 , China

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    摘要:

    基于多源观测资料和ERA5再分析数据,对2022年6月28日影响冀鲁地区的飑线维持机制及其引发的极端短时强降水成因进行分析。由于该飑线发展迅速、组织性强,多数主流模式漏报,凸显了低层弱强迫背景下此类对流系统预报的困难,为此本文重点分析其触发、组织化及维持机制,旨在提高应对此类灾害性天气的预报水平和防灾减灾水平。研究结果表明:(1)此次强对流天气发生在低层动力强迫较弱(低层无切变线与冷锋)的背景下,但中高层干冷与低层暖湿气流叠置,配合较大的对流有效位能,在地面辐合线的触发作用下,对流得到发展。(2)飑线由南北两段对流系统“嵌入型”合并完成组织化,RKW理论能较好解释其维持机制,当冷池边界传播速度与环境低层垂直风切变比值在0.9~1.7时最有利于系统维持。(3)强度大(散度中心值不超过-11×10-5 s-1)、持续时间长(不小于1 h)的中尺度辐合系统对于极端短时强降水事件的发生具有指示意义。(4)极端降水期间双偏振雷达参数呈现高ZDR(大于2.0 dB)、高KDP[大于4.0 (°)·km-1]和高Cc(大于0.98)的典型特征,指示这次降雨主要由大粒径、高浓度的雨滴组成。关键词飑线;强降水;RKW理论;弓形回波;冷池

    Abstract:

    This research investigates the mechanisms behind the development of a squall line that impacted the Hebei-Shandong area on 28 June 2022, as well as the factors leading to extreme short-duration heavy precipitation. By integrating multi-source observations with ERA5 reanalysis, it is observed that most numerical models fail to predict the rapidly developed and highly organized event, highlighting the difficulties in predicting such convective systems under weak low-level synoptic forcing. The study examines the initiation, organization and underlying mechanisms of the system, aiming to enhance the predictive capacity and disaster prevention and mitigation strategies for similar severe weather events. Key findings are as follows. (1) The convection occurs under weak low-level dynamical forcing (absence of both low-level shear line and cold front). However, the cold, dry air aloft and the warm, moist air near the surface lead to a highly unstable stratification and baroclinicity. Combined with high convective available potential energy, surface convergence lines are the primary trigger for convection. (2) The squall line’s organizational development involves the “embedded” merging of northern and southern convective cells. The RKW theory successfully explains its maintenance, and when the ratio of cold pool propagation speed to low-level vertical wind shear varies between 0.9 and 1.7, it is the most beneficial for the maintenance. (3) A mesoscale convergence system with significant intensity (divergence at most -11×10-5 s-1) and long duration (at least 1 h) is a reliable indicator for extreme short-duration heavy precipitation events. (4) During the extreme precipitation, the dual-polarization radar parameters display the typical characteristics of high ZDR (>2.0 dB), high KDP[>4.0 (°)·km-1] and high Cc(>0.98), suggesting that the precipitation is mainly composed of large, concentrated raindrops.

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赵千惠,万夫敬,马鑫鑫,等.冀鲁地区一次飑线过程的维持机制与强降水成因分析[J].海洋气象学报,2026,46(2):80-90.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-06-14
  • 最后修改日期:2025-11-03
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-04-22
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