两次多尺度系统耦合下超级单体导致极端暴雨的关键因子对比分析
作者:
作者单位:

1.上海中心气象台,上海 200030 ;2.上海海洋中心气象台,上海 200030

作者简介:

第一作者:朱嘉頔,工程师,zjdy0516@163.com。
通信作者:管靓,高级工程师,genlight@126.com。

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基金项目:

中国气象局气象能力提升联合研究专项(23NLTSZ002);中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2024J001);中国气象局青年创新团队项目(CMA2023QN06);上海市气象局科技人才类项目(KJRC202403,KJRC202411);中国气象局复盘总结专项(FPZJ2025-044)


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Comparative analysis on key factors for extreme rainstorms caused by supercells under two cases of multi-scale system coupling
Author:
Affiliation:

1.Shanghai Central Meteorological Observatory, Shanghai 200030 , China ; 2.Shanghai Marine Meteorological Center, Shanghai 200030 , China

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    摘要:

    基于环沪地区自动气象站、实况探空、ERA5再分析数据以及双偏振雷达等多源资料,对比分析2025年7月18日和9月8日上海地区两次极端暴雨过程的环境条件和中尺度成因,得到如下结论:(1)环流背景层面,两次过程均受大陆高压、副热带高压、东北冷涡及台风共同作用,上海均处于鞍型场附近,环流形势稳定,水汽条件充足,探空层结呈现对流不稳定特征,湿层深厚,为极端暴雨的产生和长时间维持提供了有利的环境条件。(2)中尺度系统层面,上海热岛效应显著,城郊温差形成局地热力环流,导致地面辐合线形成并发展,为暴雨的发生提供了对流触发条件。(3)由辐合线触发的新生对流形成后,在发展演变过程中出现后向传播和列车效应,导致多单体风暴移动缓慢且强降水带停滞少动;多单体风暴演变为超级单体风暴,其强回波质心高度低且结构倾斜,并伴有深厚的中尺度涡旋以及长时间维持的强ZDR柱和KDP柱,表征强上升运动的维持,造成超级单体持续时间长、降水效率高。结合上述关键因子,梳理凝练多天气尺度系统耦合作用下,由中尺度系统触发对流并演变为超级单体风暴的概念模型,以期为此类天气的预报预警提供有效借鉴和参考。

    Abstract:

    Based on multi-source data including data of automatic weather stations in the surrounding regions of Shanghai, operational radiosonde observations, ERA5 reanalysis data and dual-polarization radar data, this study comparatively analyzes the environmental conditions and mesoscale causes of two extreme rainstorm events in Shanghai on 18 July and 8 September 2025. The main conclusions are as follows. (1) At the level of circulation background, both cases are jointly influenced by the continental high, subtropical high, northeast cold vortex and typhoon. Shanghai is located near a saddle-shaped field with a stable circulation pattern and sufficient water vapor supply. The radiosonde-derived atmospheric stratification exhibits convective instability with a deep moist layer, providing favorable environmental conditions for the initiation and prolonged maintenance of extreme rainstorm. (2) At the level of mesoscale system, the urban heat island effect is prominent in Shanghai. The urban-suburban temperature difference induces local thermal circulation, which promotes the formation and development of convergence lines, serving as the convective triggering condition for the rainstorm. (3) Convective cells are initiated near the convergence lines and undergo backward propagation and train effect during their development and evolution, resulting in the slow movement of multi-cell storms and stagnation of heavy rainfall belts. Some of the multi-cell storms intensify into supercell storms, characterized by low centroid height of strong echoes, tilted structure, deep mesoscale vortex, and long-lasting intense ZDR columns and KDP columns. These features indicate the maintenance of strong upward motion, leading to the supercells’ long duration and high precipitation efficiency. Integrating the aforementioned key factors, a conceptual model is summarized and refined, describing the process where convection is triggered by mesoscale systems and evolves into supercell storms under the coupling effect of multiple synoptic-scale systems. This study aims to provide effective references for the forecasting and early warning of such weather events.

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朱嘉頔,管靓,管理,等.两次多尺度系统耦合下超级单体导致极端暴雨的关键因子对比分析[J].海洋气象学报,2026,46(2):91-102.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-04-22
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