台风“梅花”登陆浙江前后造成宁波极端降水成因分析
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作者单位:

1.宁波市气象台,浙江 宁波 315000 ;2.宁波市智慧气象重点实验室,浙江 宁波 315000 ;3.宁波市气象服务中心,浙江 宁波 315000 ;4.南通大学电气与自动化学院,江苏 南通 226019

作者简介:

第一作者:樊丝慧,工程师,sihuif_1017@163.com。
通信作者:顾小丽,高级工程师,68632949@qq.com。

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基金项目:

宁波市重点研发计划暨“揭榜挂帅”项目(2023Z139);宁波市公益性项目(2025S108,2025S111,2025S124)


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Analysis on causes of extreme precipitation in Ningbo associated with Typhoon Muifa before and after its landfall in Zhejiang
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Affiliation:

1.Ningbo Meteorological Observatory, Ningbo 315000 , China ; 2.Ningbo Key Laboratory of Smart Meteorology, Ningbo 315000 , China ; 3.Ningbo Meteorological Service Center, Ningbo 315000 , China ; 4.School of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Nantong University, Nantong 226019 , China

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    摘要:

    基于常规观测和自动气象观测站加密资料、卫星云图、雷达及美国国家环境预报中心(National Centers for Environmental Predictions,NCEP)再分析资料,对2212号台风“梅花”登陆浙江前后引发宁波极端强降水原因开展系统性诊断分析。结果表明:(1)台风登陆浙江前后呈现显著非对称分布特征,其西北象限对流旺盛、回波强,而东侧和南侧对流明显减弱、回波收缩。(2)雷达速度场显示台风西侧至北侧存在典型的“低层辐合-高层辐散”垂直环流配置,为对流发展提供有利的动力抬升条件。(3)偏东气流持续向浙江东北部输送充沛水汽,925 hPa水汽通量散度场在宁波地区形成强辐合中心,与实况强降水落区高度吻合。(4)西风槽引导下的弱冷空气从低层侵入台风西侧,与暖湿气流剧烈交汇,形成显著温度梯度,触发斜压锋生并加剧大气层结不稳定,显著提升降水效率。

    Abstract:

    Based on conventional observations, data of dense automatic weather stations, satellite cloud imagery, radar observations and NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Predictions) reanalysis data, a systematic diagnostic analysis is conducted to investigate the causes of the extreme precipitation in Ningbo induced by Typhoon Muifa (2212) before and after its landfall in Zhejiang. The results are as follows. (1) The typhoon exhibits a pronounced asymmetric distribution before and after its landfall in Zhejiang, characterized by vigorous convection and intense echoes in the northwest quadrant, while the convection weakens significantly and echoes contract on the eastern and southern sides. (2) Radar velocity fields reveal a typical vertical circulation pattern of “low-level convergence and upper-level divergence” on the western-northern sides of the typhoon, providing favorable dynamic lifting for the convective development. (3) The persistent easterly flow transports abundant water vapor to northeastern Zhejiang, resulting in a strong water vapor convergence center at 925 hPa over Ningbo, which coincides well with the observed heavy rainfall area. (4) Furthermore, a shallow intrusion of weak cold air from the west, guided by a westerly trough, penetrates the low levels of the typhoon’s western side. The cold air interacts with warm and moist air masses and a sharp temperature gradient is created, triggering baroclinic frontogenesis and enhancing atmospheric instability, thereby significantly increasing the precipitation efficiency.

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樊丝慧,顾小丽,方艳莹,等.台风“梅花”登陆浙江前后造成宁波极端降水成因分析[J].海洋气象学报,2026,46(2):126-135.

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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-04-22
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