2025年山东秋季连阴雨成因分析
DOI:
作者:
作者单位:

1.山东省临沂市气象局;2.中国民用航空西藏自治区空中交通管理中心

作者简介:

通讯作者:

中图分类号:

基金项目:

中国气象局复盘总结专项(FPZJ2024-074);山东省自然科学(ZR2025LQX011);山东省自然科学(ZR2023MD125);山东省气象局引导类项目(2024SDYS38)


请扫码阅读

Analysis of the Causes of Continuous Rainy Weather During 2025 Shandong Autumn
Author:
Affiliation:

1 Linyi Meteorological Bureau of Shandong Province;2.Civil Aviation Air Traffic Management Bureau of Tibet

Fund Project:

  • 摘要
  • |
  • 图/表
  • |
  • 访问统计
  • |
  • 参考文献
  • |
  • 相似文献
  • |
  • 引证文献
  • |
  • 资源附件
  • |
  • 文章评论
    摘要:

    摘 要 2025年10月1—18日秋收秋种期间山东省出现了罕见的持续性阴雨寡照天气,具有持续时间长、阶段性、累积雨量大和连阴雨叠加局地暴雨的特征。利用地面气象观测资料、NCEP再分析资料、ERA5再分析资料和HYSPLIT拉格朗日综合轨迹模型,对连阴雨天气的成因进行分析,结果表明:(1)本次连阴雨过程当中西太平洋副热带高压强度显著偏强,脊线位置较常年同期偏北4.5个纬度,西伸脊点较常年偏西10.2个经度。与此同时,连阴雨期间西伯利亚高压先后经历了两次增强过程,异常偏强的副热带高压和不断增强的西伯利亚高压共同构成了此次连阴雨天气的气候背景。(2)此次连阴雨天气过程期间,亚欧大陆整体呈现“两槽一脊”典型环流形势,700 hPa、850 hPa层面存在显著西南气流距平与气温正距平特征,200 hPa高空西风急流强度较常年同期明显偏强,位置偏北5~10个纬距,大尺度环流配置有利于此次连阴雨天气的持续维持与阶段性发展。(3)本次天气过程水汽输送按水汽贡献率,主要来源依次为东海、孟加拉湾、南海及大西洋,与海上热带气旋活动有密切关系。(4)在连阴雨强降雨期间,对流层低层MPV2<0,存在弱的条件对称不稳定,为降雨的增强提供了不稳定层结条件。

    Abstract:

    ?Abstract From 1 to 18 October 2025, a rare persistent overcast and rainy event with insufficient sunshine occurred in Shandong Province during the autumn harvest and sowing period, featuring long duration, distinct stages, large accumulated rainfall, and the combination of continuous rain and local torrential rain. Using surface meteorological observations, NCEP reanalysis data, ERA5 reanalysis data, and the HYSPLIT Lagrangian integrated trajectory model, this study analyzes the causes of the event. The results show that: (1) During this event, the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) was significantly stronger than the climatological normal, with its ridge line 4.5 latitudes northward and westward-extending ridge point 10.2 longitudes westward of the multi-year average. Meanwhile, the Siberian High underwent two successive intensification processes during the event. The anomalously strong WPSH and intensifying Siberian High jointly formed the climatic background for this continuous rain. (2)Throughout the event, the Eurasian continent maintained a typical "two troughs-one ridge" circulation pattern. Significant positive anomalies of southwest airflow and air temperature were observed at 700 hPa and 850 hPa. The 200 hPa upper-level westerly jet was much stronger than the normal and shifted 5–10 latitudes northward. Such large-scale circulation configuration favors the persistent maintenance and staged development of the continuous rain event. (3)Ranked by water vapor contribution rate, the main water vapor sources are sequentially the East China Sea, Bay of Bengal, South China Sea and Atlantic Ocean, which is closely related to marine tropical cyclone activities. (4)During the heavy rainfall period, the lower troposphere featured MPV2 < 0 with weak conditional symmetric instability, providing unstable stratification conditions for rainfall intensification.

    参考文献
    相似文献
    引证文献
引用本文
分享
文章指标
  • 点击次数:
  • 下载次数:
  • HTML阅读次数:
  • 引用次数:
文章历史
  • 收稿日期:2026-02-13
  • 最后修改日期:2026-05-25
  • 录用日期:2026-05-25
  • 在线发布日期:
  • 出版日期: