“24·7”鲁南持续性暴雨与低空急流日变化的关系
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作者单位:

1.山东省气象防灾减灾重点实验室,山东 济南 250031 ;2.山东省气象台,山东 济南 250031

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P458

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黄河流域气象联合开放基金项目(HHJJ2026M02 );山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2021MD010,ZR2025LQX008, ZR2024LQX006);山东省气象局科研项目(2025sdqxz12,SDTQ2024-02,SDTQ2024-01,2025sdqxz18,2025SDTQ01)


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Relationship between the “24·7” persistent rainstorm in southern Shandong and diurnal variation of low-level jet
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1. Key Laboratory for Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Shandong, Jinan 250031 , China ; 2. Shandong Meteorological Observatory, Jinan 250031 , China

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    摘要:

    利用常规观测、ERA5再分析和GDAS资料,对“24·7”鲁南特大暴雨过程进行分析。结果表明:(1)雨带走向取决于700 hPa低空急流(low-level jet,LLJ)、850 hPa LLJ及925 hPa超低空急流(super low-level jet,SLLJ)前侧辐合区的空间配置。前两阶段各层辐合区呈东西向,雨带相应为东西走向;第三阶段冷空气入侵使辐合区转为南北向,雨带随之转向。夜间急流初始增强时,前两阶段925 hPa风速v925 hPa≥12 m·s-1北界对应降水南界,850 hPa风速v850 hPa≥12 m·s-1北界对应降水北界;第三阶段冷空气南下后,降水南界仍由925 hPa SLLJ界定,北界则与850 hPa LLJ顶端和切变线附近的辐合区重合。(2)降水强度日变化主要受850 hPa LLJ和925 hPa SLLJ辐合所主导,呈现同步的“夜间增强、下午减弱”特征,700 hPa LLJ则提供稳定辐合与水汽输送。相关性分析表明,区域平均降水率与各层急流强度均呈显著正相关,而区域最大降水率与850 hPa LLJ和925 hPa SLLJ的关系最为密切。(3)水汽输送表现出与850 hPa LLJ和925 hPa SLLJ活动密切相关的日变化特征,850 hPa和925 hPa水汽通量强度的日变化与降水强度演变一致;700 hPa水汽通量持续为正,为暴雨维持提供稳定的水汽支持。(4)水汽来源呈现明显的阶段性差异。前两阶段水汽主要源自南海和孟加拉湾,经低层急流输送至鲁南辐合;第三阶段冷空气南下带来经渤海增湿的北方气团,与南海暖湿气流在鲁南交汇,形成“南北水汽交汇”格局,显著增强了水汽辐合强度,是第三阶段降水达到峰值的关键条件。

    Abstract:

    This study analyzes the “24·7” extremely heavy rainstorm event in southern Shandong using conventional observations, ERA5 reanalysis and GDAS data. The main conclusions are as follows. (1) The orientation of the rain belt is determined by the spatial configuration of the convergence zones ahead of the 700-hPa low-level jet (LLJ), 850-hPa LLJ and 925-hPa super LLJ (SLLJ). In the first two stages, the convergence zones at various levels are oriented east-west, resulting in an east-west oriented rain belt. In the third stage, the intrusion of cold air shifts the convergence zone to a north-south orientation, causing a corresponding shift in the rain belt. During the initial nocturnal intensification of the jets, the northern boundary of the 925-hPa wind speed v925 hPa ≥12 m·s-1 corresponds to the southern boundary of the precipitation, while the northern boundary of the 850-hPa wind speed v850 hPa ≥12 m·s-1 corresponds to the northern boundary of the precipitation. After the southward advance of cold air in the third stage, the southern boundary of the precipitation is still defined by the 925-hPa SLLJ, whereas the northern boundary coincides with the top of the 850-hPa LLJ and the convergence zone near the shear line. (2) The diurnal variation in the precipitation intensity is primarily dominated by the convergence associated with the 850-hPa LLJ and 925-hPa SLLJ, exhibiting synchronous characteristics of “enhancement in the night and weakening in the afternoon”. The 700-hPa LLJ provides steady convergence and transfer of water vapor. Correlation analysis indicates that the regional average precipitation rate is significantly positively correlated with the intensity of jets at all levels, while the regional maximum precipitation rate has the closest relationship with the intensities of the 850-hPa LLJ and 925-hPa SLLJ. (3) The transfer of water vapor exhibits diurnal variations closely linked to the activity of the 850-hPa LLJ and 925-hPa SLLJ, with the diurnal variation in the water vapor flux intensity at 850 hPa and 925 hPa aligning well with the evolution of precipitation intensity. The water vapor flux at 700 hPa remains consistently positive, providing stable water vapor support for the maintenance of the rainstorm. (4) The sources of water vapor show significant stage-dependent differences. In the first two stages, the water vapor is primarily from the South China Sea and the Bay of Bengal, transported to southern Shandong by LLJs for convergence. In the third stage, the southward intrusion of cold air brings a northern air mass, which has been moisturized over the Bohai Sea. This air mass converges with the warm, moist air from the South China Sea over southern Shandong, forming a “northern-southern water vapor convergence” pattern. This significantly enhances the intensity of water vapor convergence and serves as a key condition for the precipitation to reach its peak in the third stage.

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辛月,侯淑梅,张登旭,等.“24·7”鲁南持续性暴雨与低空急流日变化的关系[J].海洋气象学报,2026,46(3):117-129.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-12-18
  • 最后修改日期:2026-03-08
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-07-04
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