鲁中山区复杂地形作用下"7·22"极端暴雨特征及成因
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1.山东省气象防灾减灾重点实验室,山东 济南 250031 ;2.山东省气象台,山东 济南 250031 ;3.济南市气象台,山东 济南 250102

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基金项目:

山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2023MD001);山东省气象局科研项目(2023sdqxz09,2025sdqxm02,2025sdrcyj04);长岛国家气候观象台开放基金项目(2025cdkfz04)


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Characteristics and causes of "7·22" extreme rainstorm under the effect of complex terrain over mountainous areas of central Shandong
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1. Key Laboratory for Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Shandong, Jinan 250031 , China ; 2. Shandong Meteorological Observatory, Jinan 250031 , China ; 3. Jinan Meteorological Observatory, Jinan 250102 , China

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    摘要:

    基于高分辨率多源观测资料,对2025年7月21—22日鲁中山区复杂地形影响下一次极端暴雨过程(以下简称"7·22"极端暴雨)特征及成因进行分析。结果表明:(1)"7·22"暴雨受副热带高压、远距离台风和低层切变线共同影响,形成了一次长历时、高强度极端降水事件。日降水量超过100 mm的区域主要沿山脉分布,而大于250 mm的降水中心位于山脉南部的喇叭口地形内侧,复杂下垫面环境和较为集中的强降雨时段导致鲁中山区出现致灾暴雨。(2)充沛的水汽供应是此次极端暴雨发生的重要条件,副热带高压与台风"韦帕"之间形成水汽输送通道,致使鲁中山区整层大气可降水量较气候态呈现中等偏强正异常。(3)假相当位温和水汽通量散度分布呈地形相关特征,越山气流受地形强迫抬升,激发局地中尺度对流,系统性降水与局地对流性降水在近山一带叠加。(4)雷达资料分析表明,山脉南侧的低空急流经历了一次显著增强过程,偏南风急流中不断有新生对流单体发展并逐渐并入主雨带;受地形阻挡作用,中尺度对流系统(mesoscale convective system, MCS)长时间维持,若干中尺度涡旋连续经过山前喇叭口区域,造成持续的低层辐合并增强上升运动;涡旋所经区域与强降水回波区高度重合,形成列车效应,导致莱芜石云山站3 h累计降雨量高达268.1 mm。本研究进一步深化了对鲁中复杂地形条件下极端降水的科学认识,可为相关区域暴雨预报预警提供参考依据。

    Abstract:

    Based on high-resolution multi-source observations, this study examines the characteristics and causes of the extreme rainstorm event that occurred from 21 to 22 July 2025 under the effect of the complex terrain over the mountainous areas of central Shandong. The results are outlined below. (1) It is a long-duration and high-intensity precipitation event driven by the combined impact of the subtropical high, a remote typhoon and a low-level shear line. The areas with daily precipitation exceeding 100 mm are concentrated along the mountains, with a core area of precipitation more than 250 mm located inside a bell mouth-shaped area on the southern flank of the mountains. The complex underlying surface and the concentrated nature of heavy rainfall contribute to the disastrous rainstorm over the mountainous areas of central Shandong. (2) The abundant water vapor supply is a critical condition for this extreme rainstorm event. A water vapor transport channel forms between the subtropical high and Typhoon Wipha, resulting in a moderately stronger positive anomaly in the total atmospheric precipitable water over the mountainous areas of central Shandong compared to the climatological normal. (3) The distribution of pseudo-equivalent potential temperature and water vapor flux divergence shows topographic correlation. The mountain-crossing airflow is forced to ascend by the terrain, triggering local mesoscale convection. Systematic precipitation overlaps with local convective precipitation near the mountains. (4) The radar data reveals a strengthening low-level jet on the mountains' southern side, where convective cells repeatedly form and merge into the main rainband. Topographic blocking sustains a mesoscale convective system (MCS), while successive mesoscale vortices moving through the bell mouth-shaped area enhance the low-level convergence and ascending motion. The overlap of vortex tracks with heavy rainfall echoes produces a train effect, yielding a 3-h accumulated precipitation of up to 268.1 mm at Shiyunshan station in Laiwu. This study advances the understanding of the effect of the complex terrain on extreme rainstorms over the mountainous areas of central Shandong and offers valuable insights for future forecasting and risk management in relevant areas.

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张天航,李昱薇,郭子彧,等.鲁中山区复杂地形作用下“7·22”极端暴雨特征及成因[J].海洋气象学报,2026,46(3):130-142.

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  • 收稿日期:2025-10-14
  • 最后修改日期:2026-01-13
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  • 在线发布日期: 2026-07-04
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