2025年7月京津冀地区高温事件特征及成因分析
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1.河北省信息工程学校;2.中国气象局气象干部培训学院

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Analysis of the Characteristics and Causes of the High-Temperature Event in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region in July 2025
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1.Hebei Province Information Engineering School;2.China Meteorological Administration Training Centre

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    摘要:

    本文使用京津冀地区172个国家基本气象站的逐日气温资料、NCEP/NCAR第二代全球大气再分析资料、NOAA海温资料及对外长波辐射资料,系统分析了此次高温事件的时空演变特征,并从大气环流系统影响、前期海温异常强迫及辐射对流条件等多角度揭示了其形成机理。结果表明:(1)2025年7月京津冀地区月内27天平均最高温度高于常年同期值,最大距平值高达4.85℃;在空间分布上,高温日数距平与平均最高温度距平均呈现“西北低、东南高”的分布特征。(2)2025年7月京津冀极端高温事件是在西太平洋副热带高压异常偏强、偏北、偏西的稳定环流背景下,叠加前期西太平洋暖海温异常强迫,并通过晴空辐射与下沉增温的正反馈机制协同发展而形成的。具体表现为,西太平洋副热带高压脊线较气候态北抬了约10个纬度,且西伸脊点持续偏西;来自低纬的暖湿偏南气流显著增强;前期西太平洋海区海温异常偏高;上空云量显著偏少,晴空辐射持续增强,在这些因素的协同影响下,进一步加剧了2025年7月京津冀地区高温事件的强度与持续时间。

    Abstract:

    The analysis is based on daily temperature data from 172 national basic meteorological stations in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, in conjunction with NCEP/NCAR second-generation reanalysis data, NOAA sea surface temperature data, and outgoing longwave radiation data.This study systematically investigates the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of an extreme high-temperature event and reveals its formation mechanisms from multiple perspectives, including the influence of atmospheric circulation systems, antecedent sea surface temperature anomaly forcing, and radiative-convective conditions.The results indicate that: (1) In July 2025, the monthly mean maximum temperature in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region exceeded the climatological mean for 27 days, with a maximum anomaly of 4.85°C. Spatially, both the anomaly of high-temperature days and the anomaly of mean maximum temperature exhibited a distribution pattern characterized by "low in the northwest and high in the southeast". (2) The extreme high-temperature event in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in July 2025 formed under the stable circulation background of an anomalously strong, northward, and westward Western Pacific Subtropical High. This was superposed by the forcing of antecedent warm sea surface temperature anomalies in the western Pacific and developed synergistically through the positive feedback mechanism of clear-sky radiation and subsidence warming. Specifically, the ridge line of the Western Pacific Subtropical High was located approximately 10 degrees of latitude north of its climatological mean, and its western extension point remained persistently westward. The warm and humid southerly airflow from low latitudes was significantly enhanced. Sea surface temperatures in the western Pacific region were anomalously high in the preceding period. Cloud cover over the study area was significantly reduced, and clear-sky radiation continued to intensify. Under the combined influence of these factors, the intensity and duration of the high-temperature event in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in July 2025 were further exacerbated.

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  • 收稿日期:2026-03-13
  • 最后修改日期:2026-05-09
  • 录用日期:2026-05-11
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