1970—2024年山东省三类降水相态时空分布特征研究
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山东省气象防灾减灾重点实验室

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国家气象信息中心揭榜挂帅项目(MNICJBGS202509);山东省气象局科研项目引导类项目(2024SDYD07);山东省气象局科研项目青年专项(2024SDQN05)


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Spatiotemporal Distribution Characteristics of Three Precipitation Phases in Shandong Province from 1970 to 2024
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Key Laboratory for Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Shandong

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    摘要:

    为揭示山东省降水相态的长期变化规律及区域差异,基于1970—2024年山东省116个国家级地面气象站主要相态降水量日值产品,分析了纯雨、纯雪和雨雪混合三类降水相态的时空分布特征,揭示了全省及各地区降水相态的主要类型及其成因。结果表明:(1)山东省纯雨呈南多北少的空间分布特征,年平均纯雨量占比超96 %,鲁南地区为全省纯雨高值中心(纯雨量719.3 mm,纯雨日数71.2 d);纯雪及雨雪混合集中分布在半岛地区,其北部沿海形成“雪窝子”高值区(纯雪量≥20 mm、纯雪日数≥13 d);(2)年际尺度上,全省呈现降水量弱增(14.1 mm/10a)、日数趋减(-1.6 d/10a)的特征;半岛地区为相态变化最敏感地区,冬季向“纯雨”与“纯雪”两极分化,其北部降雪强度明显高于南部。月际尺度上,全省夏半年以纯雨为主(5—9月占全年57.1 %~63.9 %),冬季纯雪日数增多,雨雪混合则集中出现于冬春、秋冬过渡季。(3)两类降雪比指标表明山东省以纯雨相态为绝对主导。半岛地区为降雪季内全省唯一降雪日数超过纯雨日数的地区(降雪日数比为0.5),但纯雨占比仍持续上升(降雪量比倾向率-0.02 /10a,降雪日数比倾向率-0.04 /10a)。本研究可为山东省水资源管理及冬季海效应暴雪灾害防御提供科学依据。

    Abstract:

    To reveal the long-term variation patterns and regional differences of precipitation phases in Shandong Province, this study utilized daily precipitation phase product from 116 national ground-based meteorological stations in Shandong during 1970–2024. The spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of three precipitation phases (rain, snow, and mixed rain-snow) were analyzed, and the primary phases and causes of precipitation phase transitions across the province and its meteorological geographical regions were identified. The results show: (1) Pure rain exhibits a spatial pattern of higher amounts in the south and lower in the north, with annual mean pure rain amount accounting for over 96% of total precipitation. The southern Shandong region is the provincial high-value center for pure rain (amount 719.3 mm, days 71.2 d). Pure snow and mixed rain-snow are concentrated in the Shandong Peninsula, with its northern coastal area forming a "snow hollow "high-value zone (snow amount ≥20 mm, snow days ≥13 d). (2) On the interannual scale, total precipitation in Shandong Province exhibits a weak increase (14.1 mm/10a) accompanied by a decreasing trend in precipitation days (?1.6 d/10a). The Shandong Peninsula is the most sensitive region to precipitation phase changes, where winter precipitation phases show a bipolarization toward pure rain and pure snow, with snowfall intensity in the northern part significantly higher than in the south. On the monthly scale, pure rain is predominant in the summer half-year, accounting for 57.1%–63.9% of the annual total from May to September; pure snow increases in the winter, while mixed rain-snow concentrates in the winter-spring and autumn-winter transitional seasons. (3) Both snowfall ratio indices indicate that pure rain is the absolutely predominant phase in Shandong Province. The Shandong Peninsula is the only region where snowfall days exceed pure rain days during the snowfall season (snowfall day ratio: 0.5), although the proportion of pure rain continues to rise (snowfall amount tendency rate: -0.02 /10a, snowfall day tendency rate: -0.04 /10a). This study provides scientific basis for water resource management and winter sea-effect snowstorm disaster prevention in Shandong Province.

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  • 收稿日期:2026-04-14
  • 最后修改日期:2026-05-24
  • 录用日期:2026-05-25
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