ENSO与中国南海SST异常复合事件对长江中下游夏季降水的影响机制
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中国海洋大学

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P46

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国家自然科学基础科学中心项目(42288101);崂山实验室科技创新项目(No.LSKJ202202600);山东省自然科学基金重大基础研究项目(ZR2019ZD12)


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Influencing Mechanisms of Compound ENSO and South China Sea SST Anomaly Events on Summer Precipitation over the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River
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National Natural Science Foundation of China Basic Science Center Program (42288101),Laoshan Laboratory Science and Technology Innovation Project (No.LSKJ202202600) and the Fundamental Research Program of Shandong Province under Grant (ZR2019ZD12)

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    摘要:

    本文较为系统地探讨了三类ENSO与南海SST异常的复合事件对长江中下游夏季降水的影响,并结合环流形势特征与水平Rossby波射线通量(the horizontal Wave Ray Flux, Li-Yang WRF)揭示其物理机制。结果表明:强El Ni?o次年,Ni?o3.4区海表温度(Sea Surface Temperature, SST)异常可激发沿热带向西传播的Rossby波,首先影响南海并诱发西北太平洋异常反气旋;该反气旋通过驱动异常Ekman下沉流促使南海中部海盆进一步增暖,进而激发另一支北上东传的Rossby波。两支波列在西北太平洋汇合后共同影响东亚环流,在长江中下游、朝鲜半岛及日本附近形成气旋式切变带,增强水汽辐合与上升运动,导致该区域夏季降水增强。不同SST异常状态下,两支波列在西北太平洋相汇的位置存在差异:La Ni?a背景下对西北太平洋环流异常的作用与El Ni?o背景下相反,且两波列交汇位置更偏东偏北。大体来说,南海SST暖异常事件与El Ni?o复合有利于我国东部降水偏多,而南海SST冷异常事件与La Ni?a复合则不利于降水增加。

    Abstract:

    This study systematically investigates the impacts of three types of compound events involving El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and South China Sea (SCS) Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies on summer precipitation over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLY), and further elucidates the potential physical mechanisms by combining analyses of large-scale circulation patterns with the horizontal Rossby Wave Ray Flux (Li-Yang WRF) diagnostics. The results show that, in the summer following a strong El Ni?o event, SST anomalies in the Ni?o 3.4 region can excite a westward propagating Rossby wave train along the tropics, which first affects the SCS and induces the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone (WNPAC). The WNPAC further warms the SCS central basin by driving the anomalous Ekman downwelling, thereby triggering another Rossby wave train that propagates northward and eastward. After converging over the northwestern Pacific, the two wave trains jointly modulate the East Asian circulation, leading to the formation of a cyclonic shear zone over the MLY, the Korean Peninsula, and areas near Japan. This circulation configuration enhances moisture convergence and upward motion, ultimately increasing summer precipitation over the region. Under different SST anomalous states, the convergence locations of the two wave trains in the northwestern Pacific vary: The effect of La Ni?a on anomalous circulation in the northwestern Pacific is opposite to that under El Ni?o conditions, and the convergence location of the two wave trains is further east and north. In general, the compound of warm SCS SST anomalies and El Ni?o tends to promote precipitation in eastern China, whereas the compound of cold SCS SST anomalies and La Ni?a is unfavorable for increased precipitation.

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  • 收稿日期:2026-04-14
  • 最后修改日期:2026-04-22
  • 录用日期:2026-04-23
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